Commentary, Politics

2026 Michigan Senate Race: A Toss-Up Battleground with High Stakes

Posted on by Bill McCarthy
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan, scheduled for November 3, will determine the occupant of the Class II seat currently held by Democratic Senator Gary Peters, who announced in January 2025 that he will not seek a third term. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 22 of the 35 seats up for grabs, Michigan—along with Georgia—is one of two Democratic-held seats in states Donald Trump won in 2024, making it a pivotal battleground. From a center-right perspective, the open seat offers Republicans a rare chance to flip a Michigan Senate seat for the first time since 1994, capitalizing on Trump’s 1.4% victory in 2024, but Democrats’ strong non-presidential track record and midterm dynamics pose challenges. This article previews the 2026 Michigan Senate race, identifies likely opponents, analyzes the 2020 vote, and assesses the likelihood of a party turnover, based on verified data from sources like Ballotpedia, Wikipedia, ABC News, Michigan Advance, and Cook Political Report, as of May 23, 2025.

The 2020 Vote: A Narrow Democratic Hold

To contextualize the 2026 race, we examine the 2020 Senate election, when Peters won re-election. Peters, a former U.S. Representative, secured 49.9% (2,734,584 votes) against Republican John James’s 48.2% (2,642,233 votes), a 1.7-point margin (92,351 votes), per Ballotpedia. In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden won Michigan by 2.8% (50.6% to 47.8%), a 154,188-vote margin, per Wikipedia. Peters underperformed Biden, while James, a businessman and Army veteran, ran ahead of Trump, reflecting ticket-splitting in a high-turnout election (5.5 million votes).
Peters’s victory relied on strong margins in urban Wayne County (68% to 30%) and Oakland County (56% to 42%), with African American voters (12% of the electorate, 90% Democratic) and union households (20% of voters) providing key support, per CNN exit polls. James dominated rural counties (e.g., 70% in Hillsdale) and narrowed gaps in suburbs, winning Macomb County by 8 points. The 1.7-point margin, tighter than Peters’s 13.3% win in 2014, underscores Michigan’s competitiveness, amplified by the 2024 Senate race, where Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican Mike Rogers by 0.3% (48.6% to 48.3%), per Ballotpedia.

The Open Seat: A Game-Changer

Peters’s retirement, announced on January 28, 2025, in The Detroit News, removes the incumbency advantage, making the race a toss-up, per Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Peters cited a belief that Congress should not be a lifelong career, stating, “After three terms in the House and two in the Senate, I believe now is time to pass the reins,” per Michigan Advance. His exit, following Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s 2024 retirement, forces Democrats to defend open seats in consecutive cycles, complicating their bid to flip the Senate, which requires a net gain of four seats, per NBC News.
Michigan’s purple status—Trump won by 1.4% in 2024 (49.73% to 48.31%), after Biden’s 2.8% win in 2020—makes it a top battleground, per Wikipedia. The state’s Senate races have been among the nation’s closest, averaging a 2.8-point margin since 2016, second only to Nevada, per ABC News. Republicans haven’t won a Michigan Senate race since Spencer Abraham in 1994, and this seat has been Democratic since 1972, per Ballotpedia, but Trump’s 2024 win and the open seat create a prime GOP opportunity.

Likely Democratic Candidates

The Democratic primary is crowded, with several high-profile candidates declared, per ClickOnDetroit and ABC News. Likely contenders include:
  • Haley Stevens, U.S. Representative (11th District): Stevens, elected in 2018, announced her candidacy on April 15, 2025, emphasizing opposition to Trump’s tariffs, which she claims threaten Michigan jobs, per ClickOnDetroit. Her suburban Oakland County base and $3.2 million fundraising in 2024 make her a strong contender, per FEC.gov.
  • Mallory McMorrow, State Senator (8th District): McMorrow, a rising star, entered on April 2, 2025, framing the race as a fight against Trump and Elon Musk’s “chaos agenda,” per NBC News. Known for a viral 2022 speech defending LGBTQ+ rights, she’s a strong fundraiser ($1.5 million in 2024) and appeals to young and progressive voters, per Michigan Advance.
  • Joe Tate, State Representative (9th District): Tate, the first Black Speaker of the Michigan House (2023–2025), launched his campaign on May 11, 2025, citing his Detroit roots and the Great Migration, per ClickOnDetroit. His statewide name recognition and appeal to African American voters (12% of turnout) bolster his bid, per AP News.
  • Abdul El-Sayed, Former Wayne County Health Director: El-Sayed, a 2018 gubernatorial candidate, announced on April 17, 2025, focusing on breaking the “billionaire chokehold” on politics, per ClickOnDetroit. His progressive platform and Detroit base target young and minority voters, though his 2018 primary loss (30%) limits his statewide appeal, per Wikipedia.
Other potential candidates include Attorney General Dana Nessel, who has won statewide twice, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is “taking a serious look,” per Axios, though his weak 2020 primary support among Black voters (2%) raises doubts, per Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Rep. Hillary Scholten ruled out runs, per Michigan Advance.

Likely Republican Candidates

The Republican primary is taking shape, with one major candidate declared and others considering, per ABC News and Newsweek. Likely contenders include:
  • Mike Rogers, Former U.S. Representative (8th District): Rogers, who lost to Slotkin by 0.3% in 2024, announced his 2026 bid on April 14, 2025, emphasizing manufacturing jobs, lower costs, and education reform, per ClickOnDetroit. His $6 million 2024 fundraising and name recognition make him a frontrunner, though a Target Insyght poll showed 46% unfavorable views, per Newsweek.
  • Tudor Dixon, 2022 Gubernatorial Nominee: Dixon, a conservative media personality, is eyeing a run but hasn’t confirmed, per Ballotpedia. A February 2025 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed her leading Rogers 40% to 36% in a hypothetical primary, with 63% favorability among “very conservative” voters, per Newsweek. Her 2022 loss to Whitmer (10.6 points) tempers expectations, per Wikipedia.
  • John James, U.S. Representative (10th District): James, who ran for Senate in 2018 and 2020, is considering a 2026 bid but announced on April 7, 2025, he won’t seek re-election to the House, per Newsweek. His strong fundraising ($5 million in 2020) and appeal to Trump voters make him a contender, per NBC News.
  • Bill Huizenga, U.S. Representative (4th District): Huizenga is exploring a run, per an April 14, 2025, X post, cited by Ballotpedia. His West Michigan base and $1.8 million 2024 fundraising are assets, but his lower profile compared to Rogers or James may limit his primary chances, per FEC.gov.
Other potential candidates, like former RNC chair Ronna McDaniel or Rep. Lisa McClain, have either declined or face hurdles, per NBC News.

Likely General Election Matchups

Based on current declarations and polling, the most likely general election matchups include:
  • Haley Stevens vs. Mike Rogers: Stevens’s suburban appeal and fundraising edge face Rogers’s near-win in 2024 and Trump alignment, per Cook Political Report.
  • Mallory McMorrow vs. Tudor Dixon: McMorrow’s progressive energy could clash with Dixon’s MAGA base, though Dixon’s primary strength may falter in a general election, per Newsweek.
  • Joe Tate vs. John James: Tate’s Detroit roots and Black voter turnout could counter James’s conservative appeal and veteran status, per ABC News.
A March 2025 Target Insyght poll showed Buttigieg leading Rogers 46% to 44% and Whitmer leading 42% to 41%, though both have declined to run, per Newsweek. No recent polls test current candidates, but the 2024 race’s 0.3% margin suggests a close contest.

Likelihood of Party Turnover

The likelihood of the Michigan Senate seat flipping to Republicans is moderate—around 40–50%—making it a toss-up, per Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Race to the WH. Factors include:
  • Historical Trends: Republicans haven’t won a Michigan Senate race since 1994, and Democrats have held this seat since 1972, per Ballotpedia. However, Trump’s 2024 win (1.4%) and the open seat shift dynamics, with Slotkin’s 2024 win relying on 123,000 fewer Trump voters supporting Rogers, per ABC News.
  • Midterm Dynamics: Midterms favor the opposition party, with the president’s party losing an average of 4 Senate seats since 1974, per Wikipedia. Trump’s 43% disapproval (May 2025, per CNN) could boost Democrats, per Michigan Advance.
  • Candidate Quality: Rogers or James could unify GOP voters, leveraging Trump’s coattails, but Stevens or Tate’s fundraising and appeal to Black and suburban voters (40% of turnout) are strong, per Sabato’s Crystal Ball. McMorrow’s progressivism may struggle with moderates, while Dixon’s MAGA stance risks alienating suburbs, per Newsweek.
  • Demographic Shifts: African American turnout (12%) and union voters (20%) are critical for Democrats, but lower midterm turnout could hurt, per CNN. Suburban Oakland and Macomb counties, which swung to Trump in 2024, are pivotal, per Michigan Advance.
A Republican flip requires a strong nominee and high MAGA turnout, capitalizing on the open seat and Trump’s 2024 edge. Democrats hold the seat with robust Black and suburban turnout, leveraging midterm headwinds. The 2024 race’s ticket-splitting (Slotkin won despite Trump’s victory) suggests either party can win, per ABC News.

Final words

From a center-right perspective, the 2026 Michigan Senate race is a golden opportunity for Republicans to flip a seat in a Trump-won state, with Mike Rogers and John James as strong contenders against Democrats like Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, or Joe Tate. The open seat, following Gary Peters’s retirement, levels the playing field, but Democrats’ historical Senate success and midterm advantages make it a toss-up, with a 40–50% chance of GOP turnover. Michigan’s purple status, tight 2020 (1.7%) and 2024 (0.3%) margins, and key voter groups—Black, suburban, and union—will decide the outcome. As primaries solidify, the race will test whether Republicans can break a 30-year Senate drought or Democrats can hold their ground in a critical battleground.

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