The Planes Left Before the Tankers Were Ready

On Sunday the United States pulled every B-1 bomber off a British airfield and sent it home. Twelve of them, parked for seven months at Fairford in Gloucestershire, where they had been flying the war against Iran. The crews were ordered up so fast that the tankers meant to get them across the Atlantic were still being fueled when the bombers rolled. By Sunday night at least three had landed in South Dakota. The rest followed. A peacetime ally, a base we have used for decades, and the planes left in a day.

The vice president called it an abundance of caution. Commanders called the warning a real-world incident. British officials, pressed on what they are seeing, said there is an ongoing high tempo of threat from Iran, and that an American air base would sit high on any list.

What moved the airplanes

The bombers had been at Fairford since early March, one of the larger concentrations of American strategic aircraft the field has held. From there a crew can reach the Middle East without the long haul from the Plains. The B-1 is no longer in production. The fleet is small. A commander does not scatter it on a rumor.

The rumor had a date. On September 27 police were called to three white vans near the perimeter in the middle of the night. Five British men in their mid-twenties, living in London, were arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses and of preparing a terrorist act. A bomb-disposal robot spent the day on the vans. Eighty-five families were moved out of their houses. Officers found gasoline. They did not find a bomb. The five were released on bail.

A sixth man was picked up later in London, a British-Iranian dual national, twenty-five years old, on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. He was bailed too. The prime minister said there were strong indications Iran was involved. Tehran denied it. Counterterror police said they were keeping an open mind, and noted the recent pattern of low-level criminals paid to do a job that traces back to a foreign capital.

American officials say the file that forced Sunday’s launch was the same stream of warnings that opened three weeks ago, with the detail and the urgency spiking in the last day. European command confirmed the planes had gone and declined to discuss the warning. The decision, British counterparts were told, was military rather than political, taken at the operational level. They have not disputed that it answered the threat at the fence.

What the services have been watching

The Fairford case is the one that moved the bombers. It is not the only file.

On September 20, a week before the vans, police in Manchester arrested two Iranian men, Salam Ahmadyan, thirty-six, of Liverpool, and Rahman Salehi, thirty-four, of Salford. They were charged on October 2 with preparing terrorist acts. The allegation is that they gathered parts for homemade explosives, scouted sites, and were in contact with a third man who may be in Iran, in a plot aimed at the Jewish community on the eve of Yom Kippur. Police said that case is not connected to the air base. A year ago a car and a knife outside a Manchester synagogue killed at least two people. The anniversary was the calendar the new plot was allegedly written against.

The domestic security service has been plain about the volume. Its chief has said the service tracked more than twenty potentially lethal Iran-backed plots in a single year. He has also said the older threat has not retired. Mass-casualty ambition of the Islamist kind is still there, sitting beside the state plots. His service still rates Islamist extremism as the largest terrorist problem in the country. The national threat level has been “severe” since April 30, meaning an attack is highly likely, after two Jewish men were stabbed in north London. It had sat unchanged for four years before that.

So the picture the services are actually carrying is two layers, not one. The first is the old one: men already in the country, radicalized here or arrived that way, looking for a crowd, a train, or a synagogue, with no need of a foreign desk. The second is newer in its pace and not new in its method. Tehran, and the network that works for it, farming out arson, scouting, and explosives to proxies and to petty criminals, aimed at Jews, at journalists, and now at the American bombers Britain agreed to host. From March to May a group calling itself the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right went after Jewish communities and Israeli interests in Britain and on the Continent. The air-base file sits in that second layer. The service that watches both has said the Islamist layer is still the bigger one.

What the withdrawal admits

A host nation that cannot keep gasoline-loaded vans off the perimeter of an allied bomber base has a problem the alliance does not fix with a communique. Britain let the aircraft in. Britain polices the lane outside the wire. Five men were arrested and bailed. A sixth was arrested and bailed. The planes left anyway, because the asset is rare and the warning was fresh, and because “highly likely” is the official grade of the threat in the country where the asset was parked.

None of that is a break in the formal alliance. The field is still British. The crews can come back. What ended on Sunday is the assumption that a quiet corner of Gloucestershire is a safe place to park the bombers that are hitting Iran. The intelligence says Iran has spent the year trying to kill people on British soil, more than twenty plots by the service’s own count, and that Islamist networks remain the larger standing danger. The vans were the proof that the second of those has a road to the first.

The tankers caught up. The bombers are home. The base they left is still on the list, and the list is being written in Tehran and in bedsits in London at the same time.

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