The surveys circulating right now paint a grim picture for the party in power. The president’s approval rating sits around 36 percent in several recent polls, with his handling of the economy even lower, near 29 percent. When voters are asked which party they prefer for Congress, Democrats lead by 7 to 9 points in most averages. Forecasts talk of Democrats picking up 10 or more House seats and putting the Senate in play. With Election Day set for November 3, many Democrats are already treating a strong night as settled. A veteran pollster who has tracked these numbers for decades says the surveys may be missing a large group of voters who simply do not talk to pollsters.
The People Who Will Not Answer the Phone
Frank Luntz, who has conducted polls and focus groups for years, told interviewers recently that Trump voters do not respond to phone calls from pollsters. He pointed to his own error in 2016. That night, he trusted the exit polls and called the race wrong. Trump voters, he said, walked away from the interviewers. They thought the surveys were stacked against them and refused to take part. The same message is circulating now among Republicans: do not trust the polls. Luntz said he remains skeptical that the current numbers capture who will actually show up. Republicans are less likely to participate in surveys and less likely to believe the polls are measuring anything real. He is more interested in actual turnout, and he is not convinced the surveys are measuring it well.
This is not a new complaint. After the 2016 election, after 2020, and again after 2024, analyses of the results showed that Trump’s support was understated by a few points in many places. The people who back him are more likely to hang up, more likely to refuse, and more likely to decide the surveys are not worth their time. Adjustments for education and past vote have narrowed the gap, but the pattern has not disappeared.
💥Frank Luntz *DUMPS COLD WATER* on CNN viewers’ dreams of blue wave💥
Luntz warned Trump voters “don’t respond” to pollster phone calls.
He admitted he “got 2016 wrong” because he trusted the exit polls.
Luntz asserted he is “skeptical” the current polling is accurate.
Moreover, he cast doubt on whether pollsters are using the right measurements and asking the proper questions to determine turnout.
Luntz has been a renowned pollster for decades, so this is meaningful coming from him.
He knows firsthand how polling can miss Trump voters.
Since there are many close races, underestimating Republican turnout by a small margin could make all the difference.
It sounds like there’s a real chance of that happening.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 18, 2026
What the Numbers Show Right Now
Polls put the president’s job approval in the mid-30s in several surveys, with net ratings around negative 20 or worse. On the economy the figures are softer still. The generic ballot for Congress shows Democrats ahead by roughly 8 points in many averages. One recent survey of independents had them preferring Republicans 45 percent to 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Luntz has noted that Republicans need closer to 55 or 60 percent of independents to offset the usual Democratic edge in turnout. He has also said the Democratic advantage in people planning to vote is only a couple of points right now, not the double-digit wave some expected earlier in the year.
In some state surveys, high-propensity Democratic voters appear over-represented compared with high-propensity Republicans. That can inflate Democratic leads if the people who answer are not the same as the people who vote. Luntz has said that if the election were held tomorrow on the current numbers, Democrats would take the House by 10 to 15 seats and the Senate would lean their way. He has also said he is not sure the numbers are right.
Ward Clark’s full column:
https://t.co/ligQDLf7ZK
— Patrick Casey (@PatrickJCasey) October 19, 2026
The Rally Question and Who Actually Votes
The president has been traveling heavily in recent weeks, holding multiple rallies in a short span, mostly in states that lean Republican. Luntz has said this cuts both ways. The president’s supporters listen when he speaks. They have turned out in large numbers when he is on the ballot, as they did in 2016 and 2024. They showed up less in the midterms of 2018 and 2022. At the same time, the same appearances can motivate people who dislike him to vote against his party. Luntz has pointed to states such as Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska, where the size of the Trump vote can decide close races. If those voters stay home, Democrats can pull off upsets. If they come out, some of the closer contests can stay with Republicans.
Focus groups and turnout measures matter more than the raw preference numbers in the final weeks. Voters who are angry about prices and feel promises have not been kept may still sit out if they do not see a reason to show up. The opposite of strong support, Luntz has said, is not always opposition. It can be indifference.
History and the Size of the Error
Polls have understated Trump’s support in three straight presidential cycles. The misses were larger in 2016 and 2020 than in 2024, but they were real. Non-response from his voters has been documented in post-election studies. Midterm elections are different. Turnout is lower, and the people who vote are usually more regular participants. Still, the same non-response problem exists. A 3- or 4-point undercount of Republican voters would not erase an 8-point generic ballot lead. It would shrink it. It would turn some of the closer House races into toss-ups and protect a few Senate seats that look vulnerable on paper.
Democrats have a structural advantage in organizing and turning out their voters in midterms. That advantage is real and measurable. The question is whether the current surveys are measuring the full Republican electorate or only the part willing to talk to a stranger on the phone. Luntz has said publicly that he got 2016 wrong by trusting the exit polls. He is not promising a Republican surprise this time. He is saying the numbers everyone is citing may not be the final word.
The surveys show Democrats in a strong position. The president’s approval is low. The generic ballot is unfavorable. None of that is invented. At the same time, the same surveys have missed a slice of the Republican vote before, and the reasons for the miss have not changed. Turnout will decide whether the current leads hold or shrink. With two weeks left, that is the figure the surveys have the hardest time measuring.
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