Politics

The Surveys Missed by Double Digits in Michigan Once and the Same Seat Is a Toss-Up Again

Posted on by Bill McCarthy

Abdul El-Sayed beat Haley Stevens by roughly one point in the August Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat. He finished with 48.5 percent. She finished with 47.5 percent. The final margin was under 15,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast. That is not what the surveys predicted. In the final stretch before the primary, several polls had El-Sayed ahead by 10 points or more. One showed him up 19. Another had him up 16. The average of the late surveys sat in double digits. The actual result was a near dead heat.

El-Sayed now faces Mike Rogers in the general election on November 3. Rogers ran unopposed on the Republican side. The surveys for this contest put the two candidates within a few points of each other. Most averages have El-Sayed ahead by 2 or 3 points. Recent individual surveys show Democratic leads of 1, 2, or 6 points, with one survey giving Rogers a 2-point edge. Nearly all of those figures fall inside the usual margin of error. Undecided voters remain in the single digits.

How the Primary Numbers Went Wrong

The primary miss was large and consistent. Surveys assumed a certain share of independents and lower-propensity voters would turn out and favor the more progressive candidate. Those voters did not appear in the numbers the models expected. Stevens, running as the more moderate option, closed the gap almost completely. Outside spending poured in on her behalf. It narrowed the race but did not reverse the outcome. The polls that showed double-digit leads for El-Sayed were measuring a different electorate than the one that showed up on August 4.

Where the General Race Stands

With less than two weeks remaining, the race is a pure toss-up on the published numbers. El-Sayed holds a small and steady lead in the averages. Rogers has stayed in the mid-40s and has not led in most recent surveys, but he remains close enough that a normal polling error would flip the result. One recent survey of people who have already cast ballots showed a large Democratic advantage among that group. Early voters do not always match the final electorate.

Michigan has a recent history of close statewide races. In 2024, Rogers lost the Senate seat to Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point. The same year, the Republican presidential candidate carried the state by about 1.4 points. The seat is open because the Democratic incumbent is retiring. National midterm conditions generally favor the party out of power, which gives Democrats an edge on paper. At the same time, El-Sayed’s progressive profile has drawn sustained attacks, and Rogers is a known quantity who has already run statewide.

Whether the Surveys Are Likely Wrong Again

The primary error does not automatically mean the general surveys are off by the same amount. Primary electorates are smaller and harder to model. Still, the miss shows that surveys can overstate support for the left-leaning candidate when turnout assumptions are wrong. If Republican or independent voters are undercounted again, or if Democratic enthusiasm falls short of the samples, a 2- or 3-point Democratic lead can vanish. The opposite is also possible. If the broader environment stays as favorable to Democrats as some national figures suggest, the narrow lead could hold.

Right now the surveys say El-Sayed is ahead by a margin that sits inside the margin of error in most individual polls. That is exactly where the primary surveys were not. Michigan voters will decide on November 3 whether the numbers are closer this time or whether the same pattern repeats.

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