The 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Colorado, set for November 3, will contest all eight congressional districts during the midterm elections under President Donald Trump’s second non-consecutive term. With Republicans and Democrats evenly split at 4-4 in Colorado’s House delegation and the GOP holding a narrow 220-213 national majority, competitive races in this purple state could tip control of the 120th Congress. Colorado’s elections highlight the GOP’s chance to build on Trump’s 2024 performance while facing Democratic resilience and midterm dynamics favoring the out-of-power party. This article provides a factual overview of the 2026 Colorado House elections, analyzes 2024 vote patterns, identifies key races, and assesses the likelihood of party flips, adhering strictly to available data without speculation.
Colorado’s Political Landscape
Colorado is a competitive state with a slight Democratic lean. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Colorado by 11% (55.5% to 44.5%), down from Joe Biden’s 13.5% margin in 2020, indicating a modest rightward shift. Republicans flipped the 8th District in 2024, tying the delegation after Democrats held a 5-3 majority in 2022. Democrats have controlled the governorship and both state legislative chambers since 2018, but GOP gains in 2024, including flipping Pueblo County, signal vulnerabilities.
Colorado’s eight House districts, redrawn post-2020 census by an independent commission, range from solidly Democratic (1st, 2nd) to swing (3rd, 7th, 8th) to Republican-leaning (4th, 5th). The 2026 midterms historically favor the opposition party, with the president’s party losing an average of 25 House seats since 1946. As of May 13, 2025, Rep. Jason Crow (D-6th) is considering a gubernatorial run, potentially opening his seat. No other retirements are confirmed, but the candidate filing deadline (March 2026) may bring changes. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate most districts as Safe or Likely, with the 3rd and 8th as battlegrounds and the 6th potentially competitive if open.
2024 Vote Analysis: Setting the Stage
The 2024 House elections provide a baseline for 2026, based on data from Ballotpedia and Wikipedia. Below are the 2024 results, vote shares, margins, and presidential performance for Colorado’s eight districts:
-
1st District (Denver, D+29): Rep. Diana DeGette (D) won 76.6% to Republican Valdamar Archuleta’s 20.7%, a 55.9-point margin. Harris won by ~30 points. This urban district is a Democratic lock.
-
2nd District (Boulder, Fort Collins, D+17): Rep. Joe Neguse (D) won 68.4% to Republican Marshall Dawson’s 29.2%, a 39.2-point margin. Harris won by ~20 points. Safe Democratic.
-
3rd District (Western Slope, Pueblo, R+7): Rep. Jeff Hurd (R) won 49.9% to Democrat Adam Frisch’s 46.8%, a 3.1-point margin (9,999 votes). Trump won by ~10 points. This open seat flipped Republican after Rep. Lauren Boebert ran in the 4th.
-
4th District (Eastern Plains, Douglas County, R+13): Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) won 54.5% to Democrat Trisha Calvarese’s 42.0%, a 12.5-point margin. Trump won by ~15 points. Boebert’s relocation from the 3rd kept this GOP-leaning.
-
5th District (Colorado Springs, R+9): Rep. Jeff Crank (R) won 56.5% to Democrat River Gassen’s 40.9%, a 15.6-point margin. Trump won by ~12 points. This open seat stayed Republican after Rep. Doug Lamborn retired.
-
6th District (Aurora, D+9): Rep. Jason Crow (D) won 58.5% to Republican John Fabbricatore’s 39.2%, a 19.3-point margin. Harris won by ~10 points. Crow’s strong win aligns with the district’s blue lean.
-
7th District (Central Colorado, Jefferson County, D+4): Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D) won 55.3% to Republican Sergei Matveyuk’s 41.5%, a 13.8-point margin. Harris won by ~5 points. A swing district but Democratic-leaning.
-
8th District (Northern Front Range, R+2): Rep. Gabe Evans (R) won 49.0% to Democrat Yadira Caraveo’s 47.5%, a 1.5-point margin (2,499 votes). Trump won by 2 points. This flip to Republicans was Colorado’s closest race.
Republicans averaged 51.7% across their four districts, with margins from 1.5 points (8th) to 15.6 points (5th). Democrats averaged 64.7% in their four districts, with Pettersen’s 13.8-point win as the narrowest. Trump outperformed GOP House candidates in red districts, while Harris underperformed Democratic incumbents in blue ones, showing ticket-splitting in the 3rd, 7th, and 8th.
Key Races to Watch
Most Colorado districts are safely partisan, but three are competitive due to close 2024 margins or a potential open seat, per Cook Political Report and Inside Elections ratings as of May 2025:
-
3rd District (Jeff Hurd, R+7): Hurd’s 3.1-point win in 2024 was tight for an R+7 district, driven by Frisch’s strong fundraising ($15 million in 2024) and near-upset of Boebert in 2022 (losing by 546 votes). Frisch is likely to run again, possibly facing state Sen. Perry Will (R). Rated Lean Republican, this is a top Democratic target due to its history of close races.
-
8th District (Gabe Evans, R+2): Evans’ 1.5-point flip in 2024 made this the state’s most competitive race. Caraveo, the former incumbent, or state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D) may challenge Evans, a freshman with a military and law enforcement background. Trump’s 2-point win underscores its swing status. Rated Toss-Up, this is pivotal for both parties.
-
6th District (Jason Crow or Open, D+9): Crow’s 19.3-point win in 2024 reflects this Aurora-based district’s Democratic lean, but a gubernatorial run could open it. Potential Democratic successors include state Rep. Naquetta Ricks; Republicans may field John Fabbricatore again. Rated Likely Democratic, a flip is unlikely unless Crow exits and Republicans mount a strong campaign.
The 7th District (D+4) is a secondary watch. Pettersen’s 13.8-point win outpaced Harris’ 5-point margin, but its swing history (flipped Democratic in 2018) keeps it on the radar. Rated Lean Democratic, it’s unlikely to flip absent a GOP surge.
Likelihood of Party Flips
The likelihood of any Colorado House seat flipping parties in 2026 is high in the 8th District, moderate in the 3rd, and low elsewhere, based on 2024 margins, district partisanship, and midterm trends. Here’s the breakdown:
-
8th District (Toss-Up): ~50% chance of flipping to Democrats. Evans’ 1.5-point win and Trump’s 2-point margin make this a true swing district. Democrats need it to help flip the national House (requiring a net gain of three seats). Caraveo’s prior incumbency and the district’s close history (0.7% Democratic win in 2022) give Democrats a strong chance, especially with midterm headwinds against Republicans. However, Evans’ local ties and GOP turnout in the Hispanic-heavy (38%) district could preserve the seat. The outcome hinges on candidate quality and turnout in Adams and Weld counties.
-
3rd District (Lean Republican): ~20–25% chance of flipping to Democrats. Hurd’s 3.1-point win was narrow for an R+7 district, and Frisch’s 2022 performance (losing by 0.2%) shows Democratic viability. Frisch’s fundraising and name recognition make a rematch competitive, but Trump’s ~10-point win and the district’s rural, conservative base (Garfield, Mesa counties) favor Republicans. Democrats need high turnout in Pueblo and suburban areas to flip it, boosted by a national anti-GOP wave.
-
6th District (Likely Democratic): ~5–10% chance of flipping to Republicans if Crow runs for governor. Crow’s 19.3-point win and the D+9 lean make this a Democratic stronghold, but an open seat could narrow the race. Republicans like Fabbricatore might gain from Trump’s 2024 suburban inroads (he improved 3% from 2020), but Aurora’s diversity (28% Hispanic, 21% Black) and Democratic bench strength (e.g., Ricks) reduce the risk. If Crow runs, it shifts to Lean Democratic; if he stays, it’s Safe Democratic.
-
Other Districts: <5% chance of flipping. The 1st (D+29) and 2nd (D+17) are Democratic bastions, with DeGette and Neguse’s massive margins unassailable. The 4th (R+13) and 5th (R+9) are securely Republican, with Boebert and Crank’s double-digit wins matching Trump’s strong performance. The 7th (D+4) is competitive but leans Democratic; Pettersen’s 13.8-point win and Harris’ 5-point edge suggest stability, though GOP gains in Jefferson County warrant monitoring.
Overall, the 8th District is the most likely to flip, with a near 50-50 chance due to its swing status and 2024’s razor-thin margin. The 3rd District has a moderate chance of flipping if Democrats maximize turnout, but its R+7 lean poses a challenge. The 6th is a long shot for Republicans unless Crow’s exit weakens Democratic enthusiasm. The remaining five districts are locked in, with strong partisan leans and incumbent advantages minimizing flip potential.
Broader Implications
From a center-right perspective, Colorado’s 2026 House elections test the GOP’s ability to consolidate 2024 gains—flipping the 8th and holding the 3rd—while navigating midterm challenges under Trump’s polarizing leadership. Trump’s 2024 performance (44.5% statewide, flipping Pueblo) shows GOP strength in rural and exurban areas, but Harris’ 11% win and Democratic dominance in urban counties (Denver, Boulder, Larimer) underscore blue resilience. Republicans must defend the 8th and 3rd by mobilizing Hispanic and working-class voters, while eyeing the 6th if Crow leaves. Democrats, leveraging midterm trends and Colorado’s suburban blue shift, aim to reclaim the 8th and challenge in the 3rd to aid their national goal of a three-seat net gain.
The national environment—Trump’s approval (43% disapproval in May 2025), economic conditions (3.1% inflation, $3.50 gas prices), and GOP unity—will shape outcomes. Colorado’s urban-rural divide, with Denver and Boulder anchoring Democrats and the Western Slope and Eastern Plains backing Republicans, will drive turnout. Hispanic voters (17% of the electorate) and suburban women in the 6th, 7th, and 8th will be crucial. The 2022 redistricting map, upheld for 2024, is unlikely to change for 2026, maintaining current district leans.
Conclusion
Colorado’s 2026 House elections are likely to maintain the 4-4 delegation split, with the 8th District as the most flippable (~50% chance to Democrats) due to its swing status and 2024’s 1.5-point margin. The 3rd District has a ~20–25% chance of flipping to Democrats, driven by Frisch’s strength, but its R+7 lean favors Republicans. The 6th District, with a ~5–10% chance of flipping if Crow exits, remains Democratic-leaning. The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 7th are safely partisan. As candidates solidify and the midterm cycle unfolds, the 8th and 3rd will be bellwethers for whether Republicans can hold their ground or Democrats can tilt Colorado’s House delegation blue, impacting the national balance of power.
Help American Liberty PAC in our mission to elect conservatives and save our nation. Support – American Liberty PAC