51 percent of Americans say the U.S. economy is “strong” for the first time since July 2021, according to the latest Harvard-Harris poll taken May 12-15. That was about the time that inflation had crossed over 5 percent in former President Joe Biden’s first year in office, and the time when Biden’s approval rating began to go underwater, never to return.
The Harvard-Harris poll also similarly shows that the percent of Americans saying their financial situation is improving is up to 34 percent, the highest it has been since the summer of 2021. And the percent saying it was getting worse was down to 39 percent, the lowest it has been since the summer of 2021.
In addition, the number of Americans saying inflation was the worst problem was down 4 points from April to its current level of 34 percent. It’s still the most important issue. But the decrease in worry comes as consumer inflation measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has slowed to 2.3 percent in April, the lowest it has been since February 2021.
As inflation eases in 2025, as gas and food prices get lower, the American people are feeling more upbeat about the economy — meaning the actual numbers, not just those reported by BLS, but those experienced by households are what will ultimately matter towards public attitudes.
Which makes sense. During the Biden administration, after inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, Biden tried to make the case that inflation was getting “lower,” and it was that incomes had not yet caught up to the price increases, and so when asked if they were better off than the four years earlier, most said no.
And that was true for Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, too. All experienced periods of time where inflation outpaced incomes, and all including Biden were one-term presidents.
And so it will be with President Trump. If inflation were to start rising again dramatically, Trump and whoever succeeds him in 2028 would get blamed.
As James Carville was fond of saying in the successful Bill Clinton presidential campaign in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid.” And he was right. For H.W. Bush, inflation had peaked at 6.4 percent in October 1990 and in the recession that followed, unemployment peaked at 7.8 percent in June 1992. The damage was done. Confidence, once lost, is difficult to regain.
But if things actually improve — from the perspective of the American people this can be measured by whether nominal earnings stay ahead of inflation — the political and media class in Washington, D.C. should expect Trump and whoever succeeds him to get credit for it.
In other words, to see where approval is going to go — which will have implications for example for the Congressional midterms, where Democrats only lead by 2 points, much lower than usual for a cycle that should favor them — the thing to follow is the actual economic data. If things get better or worse, the American people will notice.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government.
Reproduced with permission. Original here: Poll: 51 Percent Say U.S. Economy ‘Strong’ For The First Time Since July 2021 As Financial Pessimism Plunges
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