The Chagos Islands, a strategically critical archipelago in the Indian Ocean, are at the center of a stalled geopolitical transition as of May 22, 2025, with profound implications for U.S. national security. The islands, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), host the vital U.S.-UK military base on Diego Garcia, a cornerstone for American power projection in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. A UK-Mauritius agreement to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius, intended to secure the base for 99 years, was temporarily blocked by a UK High Court injunction on May 22, 2025, hours before its signing, though the injunction was later lifted, allowing the deal to proceed. From a U.S. perspective, this legal drama underscores the base’s importance but raises concerns about Mauritius’s ties to China, Chagossian unrest, and regional stability. This article examines the current situation, the UK court’s actions, and U.S. security implications, based solely on verified data from sources like the BBC, The Guardian, Reuters, Al Jazeera, and AP News, as of May 22, 2025.
Current Developments: Sovereignty Transfer and Court Intervention
On October 3, 2024, the UK announced it would transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a deal formalized on May 21, 2025, through a treaty signed virtually by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam, per BBC and The Guardian. The agreement grants Mauritius sovereignty over the archipelago, including Diego Garcia, for 99 years, with an option to extend for 40 years, per GOV.UK. The UK will pay Mauritius £101 million annually (£3.4 billion net cost, inflation-adjusted) to lease Diego Garcia for a joint U.S.-UK military base, ensuring its operation, per Reuters and VOA News. The treaty awaits ratification by the UK and Mauritian parliaments, expected in late 2025, per GOV.UK.
The deal addresses a 2019 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion and a UN General Assembly resolution (116-6) declaring the UK’s control unlawful, affirming Chagos as part of Mauritius, per Al Jazeera. Mauritius argued it was coerced into ceding Chagos in 1965 for independence, a claim the ICJ upheld. The agreement allows Mauritius to resettle Chagossians—1,500–3,500 people forcibly displaced by the UK between 1967 and 1973—on islands excluding Diego Garcia, funded by a UK trust, per BBC.
However, on May 22, 2025, at 2:25 a.m., UK High Court Judge Julian Goose granted an injunction temporarily blocking the transfer, following a challenge by Chagossian women Bernadette Dugasse and Bertrice Pompe, per AP News and Reuters. The plaintiffs argued the deal violated their rights as British citizens, complicating repatriation under Mauritian sovereignty, per Al Jazeera. Hours later, Judge Martin Chamberlain lifted the injunction, ruling that Britain’s interests would be “substantially prejudiced” by a delay, per Reuters and Bloomberg. The signing proceeded, but Pompe vowed to appeal, calling it a “sad day,” per The Independent. The court’s actions highlight Chagossian exclusion and potential for further legal disruptions.
Diego Garcia: A Linchpin of U.S. Security
Diego Garcia, the largest Chagos island, is a critical U.S. military asset, leased from the UK in 1966 for 50 years (extended to 2036) and now secured for 99 years, per BBC and Foreign Policy Research Institute. Dubbed an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” it supports B-52 and B-2 bombers, naval vessels, and up to 4,000 personnel, enabling operations like the Gulf War, Operation Enduring Freedom, and B-2 strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on October 17, 2024, per StratNews Global. Its location, 1,000 miles south of India, facilitates maritime surveillance and counterterrorism, per Foreign Policy Research Institute.
The agreement ensures U.S. access, with the UK retaining veto power over foreign military presence on other islands, per BBC. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio endorsed the deal on May 21, 2025, stating it “secures the long-term, stable operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility,” per VOA News and Reuters. The U.S. funds operations through classified agreements, with the UK’s £101 million annual payment to Mauritius supporting continuity, per BBC.
U.S. Security Implications
1. Base Continuity Amid Legal Volatility
The 99-year lease secures Diego Garcia’s role against threats like Iran, Houthi attacks, and China’s Indian Ocean ambitions, per Foreign Policy Research Institute. Its 3,000-meter runway and deep-water port enable rapid deployment, unmatched by alternatives like Guam, per StratNews Global. The UK’s veto power minimizes rival access, reinforcing U.S. dominance, per BBC. However, the UK court’s initial injunction, though lifted, signals vulnerability to legal challenges, as Chagossian appeals could delay ratification or disrupt resettlement, per Reuters and Al Jazeera. The U.S. must monitor these risks to ensure base stability.
2. China’s Potential Influence in Mauritius
Mauritius’s ties with China, including $1 billion in infrastructure loans and a Sino-Mauritian population (3%), raise concerns about Beijing’s influence over Chagos post-2036, when the initial lease expires, per Al Jazeera and Foreign Policy Research Institute. China’s ports (Gwadar, Hambantota) and Mauritius’s 2019 Huawei 5G deal fuel fears that Beijing could pressure Mauritius to limit U.S. operations or seek maritime access, per Sri Lanka Guardian. Mauritius’s $1.6 billion debt to China could create leverage, though the UK’s veto mitigates immediate risks, per VOA News. The U.S. is exploring partnerships with Mauritius and India to counter this, per Foreign Policy Research Institute.
3. Chagossian Unrest as a Security Concern
The UK court’s initial block, driven by Chagossian claims of exclusion, underscores unrest that could indirectly threaten base operations. Chagossian Voices and leader Olivier Bancoult decry their lack of consultation, per BBC and Al Jazeera, with Human Rights Watch labeling the 1967–1973 expulsions a “crime against humanity,” per Stimson Center and X posts by @hrw. Protests or sabotage by resettled Chagossians near Diego Garcia could disrupt logistics, though resettlement is barred on the island itself, per GOV.UK. The court’s dismissal of the challenge, with appeals pending, may escalate tensions, per The Independent.
4. India’s Strategic Role
The Chagos Islands are a flashpoint in U.S.-China-India rivalry. India, a Mauritius ally, supports the deal but seeks to curb China’s influence, per StratNews Global. The U.S. leverages its Quad alliance (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with Diego Garcia as a key asset, per Foreign Policy Research Institute. India’s potential patrols or intelligence-sharing could bolster U.S. security, but Mauritius’s neutrality complicates cooperation, per Sri Lanka Guardian. Australia’s Cocos Islands, 1,700 miles away, are less viable due to limited infrastructure, per StratNews Global.
5. Political Risks from U.S. and UK Opposition
In the U.S., Trump’s initial concerns, reported by BBC in February 2025, were resolved by his May 2025 endorsement, but GOP hawks like Sen. Tom Cotton warn of “ceding ground to China,” per VOA News. In the UK, Conservatives like Robert Jenrick call the deal a “strategic disaster,” per VOA News and X posts by
@BritishOverseas. The court’s brief injunction reflects domestic pressure, which could push the U.S. to seek stricter treaty terms, though Biden’s support reduces this risk, per The Guardian.
Broader U.S. Security Considerations
The Chagos agreement is critical for U.S. strategy, preserving Diego Garcia’s role in a volatile Indo-Pacific. The base’s 2,000 civilian workers (mostly Filipino and Mauritian) ensure efficiency, per Wikipedia. Long-term risks—China’s influence, Chagossian unrest, and Mauritius’s economic fragility—require U.S. diplomacy. The Pentagon is exploring alternatives like the Seychelles or India’s Andaman Islands, though none match Diego Garcia’s capabilities, per Foreign Policy Research Institute. The agreement’s environmental provisions, including a Mauritian Marine Protected Area, could enhance U.S. soft power, but Chagossian fishing rights near the base need oversight, per Stimson Center.
Last words
In 2026, the Chagos Islands’ sovereignty transfer to Mauritius, briefly blocked by a UK High Court injunction on May 22, 2025, before being cleared, secures the U.S.-UK Diego Garcia base for 99 years, vital for countering China, Iran, and other threats. The court’s action, driven by Chagossian grievances, highlights risks of further legal challenges and unrest that could disrupt base stability. China’s ties with Mauritius pose long-term concerns, though India’s role and the treaty’s safeguards mitigate immediate threats. The U.S. must navigate these dynamics to maintain Diego Garcia’s strategic edge, ensuring its dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
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