Congressional Democrats just received their lowest approval rating from the public in over two decades, calling into jeopardy the party’s plan to regain power in the 2026 midterm elections and obstruct President Donald Trump’s bold America First overhaul of the country.
A new Gallup poll conducted April 1-14 shows the nation’s confidence in Congressional Democrats is at an all-time low, with just 25 percent of Americans holding a great or fair amount of confidence in Democratic leaders.
This crushing low in public confidence may help to explain why Democrats – who would be expected to regain substantial power in the midterm elections based on historic precedent – are leading by less than two percentage points in early generic congressional ballot surveys.
Congressional Democrats are currently sitting at a record low of just 25 points in terms of public confidence according to the Gallup survey. This clocks in a full nine percentage points below the party’s previous record low of 34 percent, recorded in 2023. Democrats’ current confidence rating is a full twenty percentage points below the party’s average confidence rating of 45 percent over the past two-and-a-half decades.
Furthermore, Democrats current approval rating sits about twenty percentage points below where it was in two historic midterm election cycles – 2006 under President Geroge W. Bush and 2018 under President Trump – where Democrats, as the out-of-power party, made significant inroads in the midterm cycle.
Much of the decline in public confidence now comes from within the Democratic Party itself, and much of the decline can be attributed to concerns that Congressional Democrats are failing to provide adequate leadership on the economy, according to the Gallup survey.
As Gallup points out, Democratic Congressional leaders’ rating among registered Democrats has fallen to the lowest point on record. When asked specifically to rate their confidence in Congressional Democrats’ economic approach, well under half of Democrats say they believe Congressional Democrats will do the right thing for the economy – just 39 percent. Under a quarter of independents – 22 percent – and 18 percent of Republicams say they believe Congressional Democrats will do the right thing for the economy.
Clearly, Democrats’ mismanagement of the economy – and resistance to measures that could revitalize America’s energy independence, manufacturing sector, and availability of well-paying jobs for natural-born-citizens – are hurting the party.
This explains in part why Congressional Democrats are leading against Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by so few points compared to previous elections with a Republican president in the White House.
According to the latest generic congressional ballot survey for the 2026 midterm elections compiled by Real Clear Politics, Democrats are leading Republicans by a mere 1.5 percentage points, or 45.8 percent to 44.3 percent.
While this hints that Democrats may take advantage of out-party precedent and win back a number of seats in the midterms, Democrats’ rock-bottom public approval ratings and meager lead in the generic congressional ballot hint at a blunted midterm effect.
In two previous midterm cycles under a Republican president that favored congressional Democrats – 2006 under Geroge W. Bush and 2018 under President Trump – Democrats led the generic congressional ballot by significantly more than they are now, and the party’s approval rating was nearly twice as high as it is now.
In 2006 amid growing backlash over the Iraq War, Democrats surged in the generic ballot. Democrats led the Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot poll by 11.5 points and a CNN poll from May of that year showed Democrats ahead by a whopping 14 points.
Gallup survey data from mid-2005, which is equivalent to where we are now in the pre-midterm election cycle, shows that Democrats sat at an approval rating of 42 percent – which is 17 points above where it is right now.
Then in 2018, with President Trump in office, Democrats held a sustained lead of around 8 to 10 points in the months leading up to Election Day. The Pew Research Center showed Democrats with a 52 percent to 42 percent advantage over Republicans in September 2018, and Democrats led the Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot by 7.3 points – a much greater lead than they hold now.
In mid-2017, the year before the midterm elections, Gallup survey data showed that Congressional Democrats enjoyed an approval rating of 46 percent – a full 21 percentage points above where it sits now.
The data is clear – in previous modern elections with a Republican president where Democrats were favored in the midterm elections, not only were Democrats ahead in the generic ballot by 5.8 points to 10 points more than they are now, but the party’s approval rating was around 20 points higher than it is now.
While it is still early, if Democrats are banking on anti-Trump sentiment and midterm precedent to carry them across the finish line in 2026, they may be surprised to find the “Blue Wave” they hope for is less pronounced than expected.
The political and economic landscape has shifted substantially since the midterm elections in 2006 and 2018 which favored Democrats. With just 25 percent of Americans expressing confidence in Congressional Democrats – the lowest rating in over two decades – and a razor-thin lead in the generic ballot, the party faces a credibility crisis that could blunt their gains in 2026.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Reproduced with permission. Original here: Could Democrats’ Rock-Bottom Approval Ratings And Meager Lead In The Generic Congressional Ballot Indicate Republicans Are In A Better Position For 2026 Midterms?