All Eyes On 16 House Crossover Districts in 2026 — But Dems Are Overextended into Potential Conservative Territory
In a recent Washington Post op-ed, Harrison Lavelle and Leon Sit pointed out the fact that while Democrats are sitting at an advantage heading into the midterm elections in terms of their party’s propensity for turning out in off-year elections, Democrats are over-leveraged into areas that may not be as friendly as they hope.
At the center of this debate are 16 “crossover” U.S. House districts scattered across the country — districts where voters split their ticket between one party for Congress and the opposing party for president in 2024.
According to analysis from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Democrats are significantly more over-leveraged into potential conservative-friendly territory than Republicans are, with 13 of the 16 crossover House districts having elected a Democrat for Congress but voted for President Donald Trump for president. The other three districts voted for a Republican for Congress but favored Kamala Harris for president.
These crossover districts will play a key role in 2026 because they represent districts where voter partisan allegiances are far from guaranteed, and where voter sentiment is relatively fluid.
Democrats are now defending 13 seats in districts across the country where the district voted for President Trump’s populist approach to issues like taxes, border security, and trade. These issues are continuing to play a central role in political divisions in 2026. Democratic losses among swing-voter groups, particularly Latino voters, are escalating, and many of these districts include a significant share of Latino voters who are at risk of sitting out the election — or flipping their support to the Republican side.
One of the crossover districts is Texas’ 34th Congressional District, a majority-Latino district that encompasses parts of the southern Gulf Coast. The district reelected Democrat Vicente Gonzalez for U.S. House in 2024, defeating Republican challenger Mayra Flores with 51.3 percent of the vote to her 48.7 percent. Despite narrowly rejecting Flores as a Republican newcomer, the heavily Latino district voted for President Trump by 4.4 points, 51.8 percent to 47.4 percent. Texas’ 34th District is heavily Latino, with 91 percent of the district identified as Latino according to the U.S. Census. This district represents an opportunity for Republicans to capture the House seat in 2026, but Democrats are also eyeing the district with hopes of retaining power.
Texas’ heavily-Latino 28th Congressional District, which covers a region from the eastern edge of San Antonio to the U.S.-Mexico border is also on the watch list. The district is 75 percent Latino, and voted for President Trump by 7.3 points, 53.1 percent to 45.8 percent. However, the district reelected Democrat incumbent Henry Cuellar alongside President Trump. Texas’ 28th District represents an opportunity for conservatives to appeal to the Latino vote again in 2026, as voters are already open to the president’s America First approach.
Another target is California’s 13th Congressional District, which clocks in at 66 percent Latino, and voted for Trump by 5.4 points, 51.3 percent to 45.9 percent. The district narrowly elected a Democrat to Congress, with Adam Gray securing the district by less than 200 votes against Republican incumbent John Duarte. The razor-thin margin indicates the district could be in play for conservatives next year with the right approach.
The full list of crossover districts is available from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and these districts will be in the spotlight heading into the midterm elections. Conservatives’ approach will vary by district, but several of the districts in California, Texas, New Mexico and Nevada include dense Latino populations that embraced President Trump’s America First set of priorities but chose to elect a Democrat to the House of Representatives. This could change in 2026, and watching these districts will be important to gauge how the Latino vote is engaging with both parties in a midterm election cycle.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Reproduced with permission. Original here: All Eyes On 16 House Crossover Districts in 2026 — But Dems Are Overextended into Potential Conservative Territory
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