The 2026 U.S. Senate elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will see 35 seats contested: 33 Class 2 seats and two special elections for Class 3 seats. The winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2027, to January 3, 2033, except for the special elections, which will fill terms ending in 2029. Currently, Republicans hold 20 of the Class 2 seats, while Democrats hold 13. The political landscape favors Republicans, but Democrats could capitalize on midterm dynamics against the presidential party. Here’s a breakdown based on available data:
Key Details
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Total Seats: 35 (33 regular Class 2, 2 special Class 3).
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Current Breakdown: 20 Republican, 13 Democratic for Class 2; special elections involve Republican-held seats.
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Special Elections:
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Ohio: To fill the final two years of JD Vance’s term (Class 3), vacated due to his vice presidency. Jon Husted (R) was appointed to replace Vance.
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Florida: To fill the final two years of Marco Rubio’s term (Class 3), vacated after his confirmation as Secretary of State.
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States with Elections: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming, plus Ohio and Florida special elections.
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Retirements:
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Democrats: Dick Durbin (IL), Gary Peters (MI) announced they will not seek re-election. Two other unnamed Democratic retirements are noted, totaling four.
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Republicans: Mitch McConnell (KY) is retiring. No other confirmed Republican retirements, though Jim Risch (ID) and John Cornyn (TX) have not publicly confirmed plans.
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Competitive Races
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Democratic Defenses:
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Georgia (Jon Ossoff): Trump won Georgia by 2 points in 2024. Ossoff, elected in a 2021 runoff (50.6%), faces a tough re-election. Potential Republican challengers include Rep. Buddy Carter, Gov. Brian Kemp (term-limited in 2026), Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Rated a toss-up.
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Michigan (Open): Gary Peters’ retirement makes this seat vulnerable. Trump won Michigan narrowly in 2024. Rep. Haley Stevens (D) is running, and Democrats hope for a strong candidate like Mallory McMorrow. Rated a toss-up.
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New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen): Harris won by single digits in 2024. Rep. Chris Pappas (D) and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D) are potential candidates if Shaheen retires. Rated lean Democratic.
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Minnesota (Tina Smith): Harris won by 4 points. Rep. Angie Craig (D) or Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan could run if Smith steps down. Rated likely Democratic.
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Virginia (Mark Warner): Harris won by single digits. Rated lean Democratic.
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New Jersey (Cory Booker): Harris won by single digits. Rated likely Democratic.
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New Mexico (Ben Ray Luján): Harris won by 6 points. A Libertarian challenge is noted in some analyses. Rated likely Democratic.
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Republican Defenses:
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Maine (Susan Collins): Harris won Maine’s electoral votes in 2024. Collins, a moderate, won 51% in 2020 but faces a tough midterm under a Republican president. Gov. Janet Mills (D) hasn’t ruled out running, with Natasha Alcala (D) and Phillip Rench (I) already challenging. Rated lean Republican or toss-up.
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North Carolina (Thom Tillis): Trump won by 3 points in 2024. Tillis, censured by state Republicans for moderate stances, faces a potential primary challenge. Democrats like ex-Gov. Roy Cooper or ex-Rep. Wiley Nickel are eyeing the race. Rated a toss-up.
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Ohio (Special, Jon Husted): Trump won Ohio by double digits. Husted, appointed to Vance’s seat, faces a 2026 special election. Ex-Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and ex-Rep. Tim Ryan (D) are considering running. Rated likely Republican.
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Florida (Special, Open): Trump won Florida by 13 points. Gov. Ron DeSantis may appoint a replacement for Rubio, and some speculate he could run himself. Rated likely Republican.
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Texas (John Cornyn): Trump won by 13 points. Cornyn faces potential primary challenges, possibly from AG Ken Paxton. Ex-Rep. Colin Allred (D) is a possible Democratic contender. Rated likely Republican but a “wave watch” if Democrats surge.
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Iowa (Joni Ernst): Trump won by 13 points. Ernst won 52% in 2020. A long-shot Democratic target. Rated safe Republican.
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Nebraska (Pete Ricketts): Trump won by double digits. Independent Dan Osborn is mentioned as a potential challenger. Rated safe Republican.
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Strategic Context
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Map Dynamics: Republicans defend 22 seats, Democrats 13. Only Maine’s Republican seat is in a Harris-won state, while Democrats defend two Trump-won states (Georgia, Michigan). This map is less unfavorable to Democrats than 2024 but still challenging.
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Midterm Trends: Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterms (average Senate loss: 3.5 seats since WWII). With Trump in office, Democrats may benefit from backlash, but they need a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate (currently 53-47 Republican).
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Battlegrounds: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine are the core competitive races. Ohio, Florida, Texas, and Iowa are longer shots for Democrats, with Alaska and Nebraska as extreme reaches.
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Forecasts: Early ratings (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, RacetotheWH) list Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina as toss-ups, Maine as lean Republican, and New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico as lean/likely Democratic. Most Republican seats are safe or likely Republican.
This is an early snapshot; candidate announcements, polling, and national trends will shape the cycle further. Democrats face an uphill climb but have opportunities if they exploit midterm dynamics and field strong candidates.
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