2026 New Hampshire Senate Race: A Competitive Battleground with GOP Opportunities

The 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire, set for November 3, will fill the Class II seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who announced on March 12, 2025, that she will not seek a fourth term. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 22 of the 35 seats up for grabs, New Hampshire’s open seat—its first since 2010—offers a rare chance for a GOP pickup in a state that Vice President Kamala Harris won by just 3% in 2024.

This race is a prime opportunity to flip a seat held by Democrats since 2008, leveraging Republican state-level dominance and midterm dynamics, though the state’s blue lean and Democratic strength pose challenges. This article analyzes the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race, identifies likely opponents, reviews the 2020 vote, and assesses the likelihood of a party turnover.

The 2020 Vote: A Democratic Hold in a Close Race

To frame the 2026 race, we revisit the 2020 Senate election, when Shaheen won her third term. Shaheen secured 55.8% (450,778 votes) against Republican Corky Messner’s 40.9% (330,327 votes), a 14.9-point margin (120,451 votes), per Ballotpedia. In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden won New Hampshire by 7.4% (52.7% to 45.4%), a 59,267-vote margin, per Wikipedia. Shaheen outperformed Biden, benefiting from her incumbency and moderate image, winning urban areas like Hillsborough County (53%) and suburban Rockingham County (51%), per CNN exit polls. Messner, a political newcomer, carried rural counties (e.g., 61% in Coos) but struggled with moderates and independents (42% of voters, 60% for Shaheen).

The 2020 race, less competitive than the 2016 Senate election (Maggie Hassan defeated Kelly Ayotte by 0.1%), reflects New Hampshire’s slight Democratic lean (D+2, per Cook Political Report). However, the 2024 presidential race, where Harris’s 3% win narrowed from Biden’s 7.4%, and Republican Kelly Ayotte’s gubernatorial victory signal a rightward shift, per CNN. The open seat in 2026, without Shaheen’s name recognition, tightens the contest.

The Open Seat: A High-Stakes Battle

Shaheen’s retirement, her decision driven by the “difficult political environment” under Trump’s second term, removes a Democratic stalwart, per CNN. The state’s history of ticket-splitting—electing Harris and Ayotte in 2024—makes it a battleground, with the Cook Political Report rating it Lean Democratic, Inside Elections calling it Battleground Democratic, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating it Leans Democratic as of April 14, 2025.

The 2026 midterms typically favor the opposition party, with the president’s party losing an average of four Senate seats since 1974, per Wikipedia. Trump’s 43% disapproval (May 2025, per Gallup) could boost Democrats, but Republican state-level success and the open seat create a GOP opening, per New Hampshire Bulletin.

Likely Democratic Candidates

The Democratic primary is shaping up as a contest between two U.S. Representatives:

Chris Pappas, U.S. Representative (1st District): Pappas, elected in 2018, announced his candidacy on April 3, 2025, launching a 10-county listening tour, per The New York Times. Representing Manchester and the Seacoast, he’s won 54% in his last two races, outperforming Democratic presidential nominees, per Sabato’s Crystal Ball. His $3.5 million fundraising in 2024 and appeal to moderates and independents make him a frontrunner, per FEC.gov. Pappas, who would be the first openly gay male senator if elected, emphasizes systemic change.
Maggie Goodlander, U.S. Representative (2nd District): Goodlander, elected in 2024, is considering a run, per New Hampshire Bulletin. Representing Nashua and Concord, her ties to the Biden administration (former Justice Department official) and marriage to Jake Sullivan bolster her profile, but her short tenure may limit her appeal, per Seacoastonline. She’s raised $2.1 million in 2024, per FEC.gov.

Other potential candidates, like former Rep. Ann Kuster, who said she’d consider running if Pappas declines, have faded, per CNN. Political scientist Dante Scala noted Pappas is the “heavy favorite” unless Goodlander runs, risking a divisive primary, per New Hampshire Bulletin.

Likely Republican Candidates

The Republican primary hinges on a key figure, with others waiting in the wings:

Chris Sununu, Former Governor (2017–2025): Sununu, who left office with high approval, reversed his initial refusal and is considering a run, telling The Washington Times on March 11, 2025, he hasn’t “ruled it out,” per CNN. A March 17–19, 2025, Quantus Insights poll showed him leading Pappas 53% to 44% (650 registered voters), per X posts. His 56% approval in 2024 and four gubernatorial wins make him the GOP’s top recruit, though his criticism of Trump may complicate a MAGA-heavy primary, per New Hampshire Bulletin.
Scott Brown, Former U.S. Senator (MA, 2010–2013): Brown, a New Hampshire native who lost to Shaheen by 3.3% in 2014, is “still thinking about” running, per CNN. His Trump loyalty (ambassador to New Zealand, 2017–2021) appeals to MAGA voters, but his Massachusetts ties hurt him in 2014, per Sabato’s Crystal Ball. A February 26–March 1, 2025, Praecones Analytica poll showed Shaheen leading him 55% to 45%,
Tejasinha Sivalingam, 2022 Senate Candidate: Sivalingam, a declared candidate, ran in the 2022 GOP primary but has low name recognition and minimal fundraising ($50,000 in 2022).

Other potential candidates, like Executive Councilor Joe Kenney or 2022 congressional candidate Lily Williams, lack statewide traction, per WMUR. Sununu’s decision is pivotal; if he runs, Brown is unlikely to compete, per New Hampshire Bulletin.

Likely General Election Matchups

Based on current dynamics, the most likely general election matchups are:

Chris Pappas vs. Chris Sununu: A marquee race pitting Pappas’s federal experience against Sununu’s statewide dominance, per Seacoastonline. The Quantus poll’s 9-point Sununu lead suggests GOP strength, but Pappas’s moderate appeal could close the gap.
Maggie Goodlander vs. Scott Brown: Goodlander’s national ties face Brown’s Trump-aligned campaign, with Brown’s 2014 loss and regional baggage as liabilities.
Chris Pappas vs. Scott Brown: Pappas’s stronger primary position makes this more likely than Goodlander vs. Brown, with Pappas favored due to Brown’s weaker polling.

Likelihood of Party Turnover

The likelihood of the New Hampshire Senate seat flipping to Republicans is moderate—around 30–40%—making it a competitive race leaning Democratic. Key factors include:

Historical Trends: Democrats have held both Senate seats since 2017, and no Republican has won a Senate race since 2002, per Ballotpedia. Shaheen’s 14.9% win in 2020 and Hassan’s 0.1% win in 2016 show Democratic resilience, but the open seat and Harris’s narrow 3% win in 2024 (down from 7.4% in 2020) create GOP opportunities.
Midterm Dynamics: Midterms favor the opposition, with Democrats gaining from Trump’s 43% disapproval, per Gallup. New Hampshire’s independent voters (40% of the electorate, per CNN exit polls) often swing against the president’s party, boosting Democrats.
Candidate Quality: Sununu’s 53% polling lead over Pappas and statewide popularity make him the GOP’s best shot, per X post. Without him, Brown or lesser-known candidates like Sivalingam struggle against Pappas’s fundraising and moderate appeal, per The New York Times. Goodlander’s inexperience could weaken Democrats if she wins the primary.
Demographics and Geography: Democrats dominate urban Hillsborough (Manchester) and suburban Rockingham, while Republicans carry rural Coos and Belknap. Independents and suburban women (25% of voters, per CNN) are pivotal, favoring Democrats in recent federal races.

A Republican flip requires Sununu’s candidacy, high MAGA turnout, and capitalizing on Trump’s 2024 gains (he improved 4% from 2020, per CNN). Democrats hold the seat with Pappas’s coalition of urban, suburban, and independent voters, leveraging midterm headwinds. The race’s expense—potentially the costliest in state history,—will draw national money, amplifying its competitiveness.

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