American aircraft have dropped heavy ordnance on Iranian targets since late February. The Iranian navy is largely gone. Missile stocks have been cut. Yet the regime still plants mines, fires drones, and claims hits on tankers in and near the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday both sides reported shipping incidents in the waterway. Iran said two tankers struck mines and a third caught fire. The United States said it disabled a vessel trying to break a blockade. The pattern has held for months. Iran does not need to win a conventional fight. It only needs to keep enough uncertainty over the strait that insurance rates stay high and shipping companies hesitate. That is all it has done.
TANKER IN HORMUZ SPITS OUT HUGE COLUMN OF FLAMES after ‘ATTACK’
OIL SPILL turns OMAN’S COAST BLACK, with THICK LAYER of crude covering shoreline
‘Until all threats neutralized, Strait of Hormuz CLOSED to rogue vessels’ — Iran Navy https://t.co/o45VydOFGZ
— RT (@RT_com) November 8, 2026
What Bombing Can and Cannot Do
Air power can sink ships, destroy launchers, and crater airfields. It cannot clear every small boat, every minefield, or every coastal spotter who radios a target. Iran adapted after early strikes by moving radars inland or relying on spotters. It kept enough short-range missiles and drones to harass traffic. United States forces have responded by hitting Iranian-linked tankers in return. Those strikes have sunk or disabled vessels, but they have not stopped the harassment. The same cycle has repeated: Iranian attack on shipping or a warship, American counter-strike on tankers or coastal sites, then another Iranian attempt. Neither side has forced the other to stop. The waterway that once carried roughly a fifth of the world’s oil remains dangerous enough that traffic stays well below normal levels.
Why the Regime Has Not Folded
The Islamic Republic’s leaders lack broad popularity. Surveys before and during the fighting showed large majorities unhappy with the economy and open to change. Yet the security apparatus remains intact. The Revolutionary Guard and the Basij still control the streets, the prisons, and the weapons. Protests have risen in number since the spring, but they have not produced mass defections or a force capable of seizing power. External bombing has also produced a limited rally effect. Some Iranians who dislike the regime still do not want foreign aircraft hitting their cities or hospitals. Hard-line voters and the organized base that turns out for official rallies have stayed loyal. That base is a minority, but it is armed, paid, and willing to shoot. Without a ground force inside the country to challenge it, air strikes alone cannot topple the government or force it to open the strait on American terms.
The Choice the United States Has Not Made
A full blockade or a sustained campaign against every coastal launcher and mine layer would require more ships closer to shore and higher risk of losses. An invasion large enough to occupy key ports and oil terminals would demand hundreds of thousands of troops and months of logistics. Neither option has been chosen. American officials have stated limited goals: degrade the navy, reduce the missile threat, and keep pressure on nuclear work. Those goals have been met in part. They do not include the permanent denial of Iran’s ability to threaten shipping with cheap, replaceable tools. Iran’s leaders have calculated that they can absorb the bombing, keep the strait closed enough to hurt others, and wait. So far the calculation has held. The bombs continue. The mines and drones continue. The stalemate continues.
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