The midterm results landed like a hammer on Republican plans for 2028. Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Seats that had looked safe for years flipped. In Ohio, the Senate seat once held by the vice president went back to the other side. Governors who thought they could ride the last two years of the administration into national prominence now face a different map. No one has declared for the presidential nomination. The calculations that looked settled in the summer have changed.
WaPo: “Ambitious Republicans were already sizing up JD Vance ahead of the 2028 presidential primary. Tuesday night’s GOP bludgeoning has only emboldened some of them. FL Gov. Ron DeSantis embarked on a media blitz in recent days as he prepares a potential run. GA Gov. Brian Kemp is weighing a bid. And Sen. Ted Cruz is planning to work with longtime consultant Jeff Roe of Axiom Strategies if he enters the race.
… Lesser-known Republicans eyeing long-shot runs, like Sens. Rick Scott and John Kennedy, have made their own treks to early presidential nominating states this year in support of Republican candidates. AR Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and former VA governor Glenn Youngkin are also seen as contenders, as is Mike Pence, who has been growing a policy org to push the GOP back toward some of its past principles.”
… FL Gov.-elect Byron Donalds on NBC: Q – “Are you still supporting JD Vance for 2028 as you’ve said in the past? Donalds: We’ll leave 2028 to 2028.”
… Conservative columnist Ross Douthat, a new 60 Minutes hire by Bari Weiss, interviewed Trump for tonight’s episode. They released this promo clip:
Q – “Talarico said he wants to work with you on immigration. During the course of the campaign, you did occasionally called him Talafreako. Trump: Yeah, I did. Q – Do you think you could work with the Democrats without insulting them? Yeah, sure I could. I also called many of them Dumbocrats. Q – If it took 6 months of not insulting Democrats to get a deal done, could you do it? Trump: Very, very easily.”
… I rarely laugh at any clip of Trump. This one made me laugh. Because first, I can’t believe this is 60 Minutes. And second, Trump has never sounded more weak and pathetic.NYT late Sunday afternoon: “Breaking News: Nvidia opened an investigation into Jensen Huang, its CEO, after he acknowledged to the company’s board that he had been intimate with a business executive who US intelligence determined to be a Chinese spy.”
… NYT: “In a recently built industrial park on the northwest fringe of Beijing, the listed address of a company called New Matrix stands empty, a hollow gray shell with wires dangling from the ceiling where lights should be.
… Earlier this year, the Trump admin approved this Chinese firm to assemble Nvidia’s advanced chips into the computers that create AI. Trump allowed the sale of the chips, called the H200, to China late last year. But before they could be sold, the Commerce Dept was required to review the companies involved for national security risks.
… New Matrix passed that review. Yet recent checks by NYT found that, within China, there is little evidence the firm actually exists, raising questions about who in China is behind the company.
… Only scant info can be found online about New Matrix, which was created 17 months ago. At the building that New Matrix lists as its address, a company directory does not include the firm. At the nearby property management agency for the industrial park, a receptionist and a manager both said they had no record of the company.
… According to Chinese corporate records, New Matrix’s owners have ties to a prominent Chinese private equity fund that the US govt placed on a trade blacklist in 2024. Two analysts who examined the corporate records and other Chinese-language information said they believed New Matrix may be a front for firms associated with that fund.
— Ron Filipkowski
— Russell Shaw (@therussellshaw) November 9, 2026
The Vice President Still Leads, but the Numbers Moved
Early primary polls still put the vice president near the top. Recent surveys show him in the mid-to-high 30s, with the secretary of state in the low-to-mid 20s. That gap has narrowed in some polls. Prediction markets that priced him as the clear favorite before Election Day dropped his odds of the nomination by several points in the days after. He has said he has not decided whether to run. Some of the people around him have begun asking whether any Republican can win in two years. He also spent the campaign season as finance chair for the party’s national committee, which kept him in regular contact with the donors who write the largest checks. That advantage does not disappear overnight. It does become harder to use when the last national election produced a large Democratic sweep.
Florida’s Governor Sees a Door
The outgoing governor of Florida has become more visible since Tuesday. His state was one of the few that largely held its ground while others moved the other way. Reports that he has begun contacting consultants and that his political committee has started raising money appeared within days of the vote. He publicly denied reaching out to anyone. His term ends in January. He already ran once and learned that a late start and a campaign that spent heavily without winning early states can end quickly. The argument he can make is straightforward: the last national election was rough, yet the state he governed did not fall. Whether that argument travels outside Florida is the open question. Markets that had him in the single digits before the midterms moved him into the high teens within 48 hours.
The Rest of the Field
The secretary of state sits second in most surveys. He has said he has no plans to run if the vice president does. Holding two senior administration jobs also creates practical problems if he decides to enter. The president’s eldest son appears in the low double digits in some polls on name alone. He has never held office. Senators from Texas and Arkansas, the governor of Georgia, and the governor of Arkansas have all been mentioned by people who watch these races. Most of them have stayed quiet so far. A few made early trips to the first primary states this year while helping other candidates. None of them starts with the name recognition or the fundraising base that the two administration figures already possess.
Fox News unveils their list of potential Republican and Democratic 2028 presidential candidates. Who got your vote ? https://t.co/3SsMkC8tf0
— Meatball 🧆 (@MiniMeatMikeB) November 8, 2026
Who Is Most Likely to Run
The vice president remains the most likely to enter. The advantages of the office, the donor relationships, and the residual loyalty of the president’s voters are real. The midterm results have made the decision harder, not impossible. The Florida governor is next. He has a record he can point to, a term that is ending, and a sudden opening created by the losses. The secretary of state is third. He has indicated he will step aside if the vice president runs, but that calculation can change if the vice president stays out. Everyone else is further back. The field can grow quickly once the first two or three decide. Two years is a long time, and the president has not yet chosen a favorite. The party that just lost both chambers is now deciding who will try to win them back.
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