Commentary

Senate Republicans Just Handed the Job Right Back to the Man Who Lost It

Posted on by Bill McCarthy

A week after voters stripped them of the Senate majority in a midterm drubbing that flipped seven seats, the Republican conference met behind closed doors on Tuesday and reelected John Thune of South Dakota as their leader. He ran unopposed. The same team that sat in the top posts stayed in place. When the new Congress convenes in January, Thune will be minority leader.

The numbers are stark. Republicans entered the year with a 53-47 edge. Democrats flipped seats in Texas, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Iowa. In Texas, Ken Paxton—who had defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the May primary runoff by roughly 64 percent to 36 percent—lost the general election to James Talarico. In South Carolina, Darline Graham lost to Annie Andrews. In Kansas, a state that had not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, Adam Hamilton beat Roger Marshall. Susan Collins lost in Maine. The chamber that once looked safe enough for a comfortable majority is now headed for Democratic control in the mid-50s.

Inside the conference, the discussion was described as frank. Several senators, including Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Rick Scott of Florida, had pushed to delay the leadership votes so members could dig into what went wrong. That effort failed on a 31-15 vote. No one stepped forward to challenge Thune. Josh Hawley of Missouri said he was not happy but declined to commit his vote in advance. John Kennedy of Louisiana and others signed letters calling for more conversation, yet none offered themselves as the alternative. One senator summed up the practical problem: who would want the job after a loss like this?

The Case They Made for Sticking With Him

Thune’s colleagues have long described him as a team player who listens before he decides. He replaced Mitch McConnell as leader after the 2024 elections, winning a three-way race on the second ballot by 29-24 over Cornyn. In his nearly two years as majority leader he oversaw passage of the major tax and border package, confirmation of more than 400 nominees, the Laken Riley Act, and measures on fentanyl. He kept the Senate in session for long stretches and argued that the record produced safer streets and more money in Americans’ pockets. Several members said the closed-door talk was less about personal criticism of Thune and more about the broader family of the conference.

That is the institutional view. The other view is harder to square with the election results. The House passed a citizenship and voter-identification bill that the president called a top priority. It never cleared the Senate. Thune repeatedly said he supported the policy but that the votes were not there to change the filibuster rules, and that no Democrats would support the measure. Conservatives argued for forcing longer floor fights or finding other paths. Those efforts stalled. In states that had voted heavily for the president in 2024—Texas by nearly 14 points, Kansas by 16—voters handed Senate seats to Democrats. High fuel prices, the costs of the Iran conflict, and a sense that key campaign promises on election integrity had not been delivered all played roles. The conference heard the complaints. It still voted for the same leader.

What the Minority Years Will Look Like

Thune will now lead a smaller Republican caucus against a Democratic majority. He has already said the party will work with the president to stop what he calls the worst impulses of the other side and will not stand idly by while Democratic proposals try to unwind the tax and border measures already signed into law. The filibuster remains intact, which gives the minority real leverage on most legislation. Nominations and must-pass bills such as the defense authorization will still move in the lame-duck weeks ahead. Beyond that, the practical work is blocking.

Whether that approach restores the majority is another question. The same caution that protected the filibuster and kept the conference from internal warfare also left major election-integrity legislation on the table. Voters in places that had been reliably Republican noticed. The conference, facing a choice between continuity and an untested alternative that no one was willing to volunteer, chose continuity. The midterm numbers show what that continuity produced. The next two years will show whether the same leadership can reverse it.

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