The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota, set for November 3, will fill the Class II seat vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith, who announced on February 13, 2025, that she will not seek a second full term. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and defending 20 of the 33 seats up for grabs, Minnesota’s open seat offers a rare opportunity for the GOP to flip a state that Donald Trump lost by 4.24% in 2024. From a center-right perspective, the absence of an incumbent, combined with Minnesota’s tightening electoral margins, makes this a prime pickup chance for Republicans, though Democrats’ stronghold on statewide offices and robust voter base pose a formidable challenge. This article analyzes the 2026 Minnesota Senate race, likely opponents, the 2020 vote, and the likelihood of a party change.
The 2020 Vote: A Narrow Democratic Victory
In 2020, Tina Smith won her first full term with 48.74% (1,566,522 votes) against Republican Jason Lewis’s 43.55% (1,398,145 votes), a 5.19-point margin (168,377 votes). Joe Biden carried Minnesota by 7.11% (52.40% to 45.28%), a 233,012-vote edge. Smith underperformed Biden, while Lewis, a former congressman, trailed Trump, reflecting ticket-splitting in a high-turnout election (3.2 million votes). Smith dominated urban Hennepin County (70%) and Ramsey County (71%), with strong support from Black voters (8% of electorate, 85% Democratic) and union households (18%, 60% Democratic). Lewis won rural areas like Stearns County (60%) but couldn’t close the urban-suburban gap.
The 2020 margin, tighter than Amy Klobuchar’s 18.2% Senate win in 2024, underscores Minnesota’s competitiveness. Kamala Harris’s 4.24% win in 2024, down from Biden’s 7.11%, and the GOP’s near-misses in 2022 statewide races (e.g., attorney general, auditor) signal a rightward drift, making the open seat a battleground.
The Open Seat: A Rare Opportunity
Smith’s retirement, citing family priorities, marks Minnesota’s first open Senate race since 2006. Democrats have controlled both Senate seats since 2009 and all statewide offices since 2018, with no Republican winning statewide since Tim Pawlenty’s 2006 gubernatorial re-election. Minnesota’s D+7 partisan lean favors Democrats, but Trump’s 2024 performance and the lack of an incumbent make it a toss-up, with some analysts rating it Lean Democratic. The state’s evenly split U.S. House delegation (4-4) and tied state House reflect its purple undercurrents.
Midterm dynamics typically favor the opposition, with the president’s party losing an average of 3.5 Senate seats since 2002. Trump’s 43% disapproval in May 2025 could boost Democrats, but GOP gains in rural Minnesota and among working-class voters offer hope for a flip.
Likely Democratic Candidates
The Democratic primary is shaping up as a competitive contest, with several high-profile candidates declared:
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Peggy Flanagan, Lieutenant Governor: Flanagan, the nation’s highest-ranking Native American elected executive, announced her candidacy on February 13, 2025, emphasizing Minnesota’s “values of decency.” Endorsed by Al Franken, her statewide name recognition and progressive appeal make her a frontrunner, though her $1.2 million 2024 fundraising trails others.
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Angie Craig, U.S. Representative (2nd District): Craig, elected in 2018, entered on April 29, 2025, touting her moderate record in a swing district (Harris+6). With $4.1 million raised in 2024 and Dean Phillips’s endorsement, she appeals to suburban voters but faces a tough primary.
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Melissa Hortman, State Representative: Hortman, state House minority leader, is exploring a run. Her $800,000 2024 fundraising and leadership role bolster her case, but she lacks Flanagan’s statewide profile.
Former state Senator Melisa López Franzen declared but withdrew on May 17, 2025. Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Rep. Ilhan Omar declined to run, avoiding a divisive primary.
Likely Republican Candidates
The GOP primary features declared candidates with potential heavyweights waiting:
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Royce White, Former NBA Player: White, the 2024 Senate nominee who lost to Klobuchar by 15.7%, reaffirmed his 2026 run. His MAGA alignment and $500,000 2024 fundraising appeal to Trump voters, but his polarizing style and weak general election performance raise doubts.
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Adam Schwarze, Former Navy SEAL: Schwarze, a political newcomer, declared in March 2025, focusing on veteran issues. His limited fundraising ($100,000) and low profile make him a long shot.
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Potential Contenders: Names floated include state Senator Julia Coleman, state Representative Kristin Robbins, sportscaster Michele Tafoya, and 2022 state auditor nominee Ryan Wilson. Former Governor Tim Pawlenty, House Speaker Lisa Demuth, and Reps. Tom Emmer and Pete Stauber declined to run, leaving the GOP seeking a strong nominee.
Likely General Election Matchups
Based on current candidates, likely matchups include:
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Peggy Flanagan vs. Royce White: Flanagan’s statewide experience and urban base face White’s MAGA appeal, with Democrats favored due to White’s 2024 loss.
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Angie Craig vs. Julia Coleman: Craig’s suburban strength meets Coleman’s conservative youth, a toss-up leaning Democratic due to Craig’s fundraising edge.
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Melissa Hortman vs. Ryan Wilson: Hortman’s legislative record versus Wilson’s auditor campaign experience, with Democrats holding an edge in urban turnout.
No recent polls test these matchups, but a February 2025 generic ballot showed Democrats leading 49% to 43%, suggesting a competitive race.
Likelihood of Party Change
The likelihood of a Republican flip is moderate—30–40%—making it a Lean Democratic race. Key factors include:
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Historical Trends: Democrats have won every Senate race since 2002, with Smith’s 5.3% margin in 2020 as the closest. Harris’s 4.24% win in 2024 and Biden’s 7.11% in 2020 highlight Minnesota’s blue lean, but the open seat and GOP rural gains (e.g., 65% in Stearns) create an opening.
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Midterm Dynamics: Trump’s 43% disapproval and tariff-driven price hikes (3% consumer cost increase) favor Democrats, per May 2025 data. Independents (35% of voters, 55% Democratic in 2020) and urban turnout (Hennepin, Ramsey 40% of electorate) are critical.
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Candidate Quality: Flanagan or Craig’s statewide appeal and fundraising edge outweigh White’s MAGA base or Schwarze’s inexperience. A stronger GOP nominee like Coleman could close the gap, but the party’s lack of a top-tier candidate hurts, per posts on X.
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Demographic Shifts: Black (8%), young (20%), and union voters (18%) lean Democratic, while GOP gains among non-college Whites (45% of electorate, 60% Republican) keep it close. Suburban Hennepin and Anoka counties, trending red, are pivotal.
A GOP flip requires a strong nominee, high MAGA turnout, and capitalizing on Trump’s 2024 rural gains. Democrats hold the seat with robust urban and suburban turnout, leveraging midterm headwinds. The DFL’s primary risks splitting progressives and moderates, but their voter base gives them an edge.
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