Commentary, Politics

AIPAC’s Big Checks Keep Bouncing in the Primaries

Posted on by Bill McCarthy

The pro-Israel political machine has spent tens of millions this cycle trying to stop candidates who attack the U.S.-Israel relationship. In several high-profile Democratic primaries the checks cleared but the candidates still lost. Now even a solidly pro-Israel Republican Senate nominee in Michigan has asked the group to stay out of his race. That is not business as usual.

Something real is shifting. It is not the end of the alliance or the sudden death of a powerful interest. It is the collision between unlimited outside spending and a Democratic base that has turned sharply against Israel’s conduct in the current war. The money is still there. The automatic wins are not.

The Spending and the Scorecard

Pro-Israel groups have poured more into 2026 Democratic primaries than in recent cycles. One affiliated super PAC alone has already exceeded previous totals. The strategy is familiar: identify critics, especially those who call Israeli actions genocide or demand cuts in aid, and bury them under advertising. In some districts it still works. In others the spending becomes the issue itself. Challengers run against the money as much as against the incumbent. Voters in progressive strongholds treat the endorsement as a liability rather than an asset.

Michigan delivered the clearest example. More than thirty million dollars went into trying to stop a progressive critic of Israel in the Democratic Senate primary. The preferred moderate still lost by a point. New York produced similar results in multiple House races where progressive challengers who made Israel policy central defeated better-funded opponents. Elsewhere the record is mixed. Some preferred candidates advanced. The overall win rate is lower than the near-perfect records of prior cycles.

The Rogers Request

Michigan’s Republican Senate nominee is pro-Israel by any normal measure. His team still asked the major pro-Israel group not to run ads on his behalf against the Democratic nominee who just beat their preferred candidate. A prepared attack ad was pulled. The fear is straightforward: in a swing state with a large Arab-American population and a Democratic electorate already inflamed over Gaza, the association is radioactive. Even a Republican who supports the alliance calculates that visible help from the group could cost more votes than it gains.

That request would have been unthinkable a few cycles ago. It is now a tactical calculation. The brand that once signaled mainstream seriousness has become a polarizing marker in certain electorates.

What This Means for November

The pro-Israel lobby has not lost its capacity to raise money or its access in Washington. It has lost the ability to dictate outcomes inside the Democratic Party’s left flank. Progressive candidates who treat criticism of Israel as a litmus test are winning nominations in safe blue seats. That means more members of the next Democratic caucus will arrive already committed to restricting aid, conditioning support, or using the harshest rhetoric. The party’s internal fight over Israel policy will intensify rather than fade.

In competitive general elections the dynamic cuts both ways. Republicans remain broadly supportive of the alliance and will campaign on it where it helps. In places like Michigan the same support can be framed by opponents as out-of-touch or bought. Voters exhausted by the human and financial costs of the war are less moved by traditional arguments about shared values and strategic partnership. Money still buys airtime. It does not automatically buy credibility when the underlying policy is unpopular with the base that shows up in primaries.

America’s interest is not identical to any foreign lobby’s preference. A strong relationship with Israel serves U.S. security and intelligence goals. Blank-check politics that ignore changing public opinion and the actual conduct of the war does not. The current backlash is the predictable result of treating dissent as illegitimate and assuming spending can override voter sentiment. The November map will show how far that assumption still holds. In deep-blue districts it is already cracking. In the rest of the country the old rules still apply, but the margin for error is thinner than it used to be.

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