Politics

Maine’s Senate Race Keeps Twisting and the Numbers Are Still Too Close for Comfort

Posted on by Bill McCarthy

The fight for control of the Senate runs through Maine, where Republican Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson. Maine has not been friendly ground for Republicans in presidential races. It backed the Democratic nominee by nearly seven points in 2024. Collins is the last Republican senator from New England. She has held the seat since 1996 by carving out a moderate reputation and delivering for the state. This year the environment is different.

How the Democratic Side Changed

Democrats started the cycle with Graham Platner as their nominee. He won the June primary and positioned himself as a progressive outsider. In early July a woman accused him of rape during a past relationship. Platner denied the charge. Support from party leaders and progressive figures collapsed within days. He withdrew on July 10, saying the campaign could no longer function. State Democrats held a nominating convention on July 25 and selected Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and logger, to replace him. Jackson has run as a progressive, emphasizing health care, immigration enforcement, and abortion rights. He has spent the fall tying Collins to the current administration.

What the Surveys Show Now

Recent polls put the race inside a few points. Averages of surveys taken in late September and October show Jackson ahead by roughly one to three points. Individual results include Jackson at 49 percent and Collins at 47 percent, Jackson at 50 percent and Collins at 46 percent, a 51-to-47 edge for Jackson, and several ties at 46 percent or 50 percent. One survey had Collins ahead by two or three points. Most of those leads fall within the margin of error. Undecided voters remain in the single digits. The race is rated a toss-up.

Collins has a history of running ahead of her party’s presidential performance in the state. In 2020 she trailed in most polls against Sara Gideon and still won by about nine points, taking just over 51 percent. She has spent years building relationships in rural and small-town Maine. Jackson’s campaign has raised substantial money, and outside groups have poured tens of millions into advertising on both sides. The candidates held their final debate on October 15.

Who Is Likely to Win

Jackson holds a narrow edge in the bulk of recent surveys, and the broader midterm environment favors the party out of power. Maine’s independent and moderate voters will decide the outcome, and Collins has won their support before. Ranked-choice voting is in place, though both major candidates are the only ones on the ballot. Prediction markets give Jackson a modest advantage. The numbers say the Democrat is slightly ahead. Collins has defied the numbers in Maine before. The seat is one of a handful that could determine which party runs the Senate after November 3.

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