Vice President JD Vance crossed the continental United States to campaign for the Senate race in a state President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
Though Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan won his second term in 2020 by 13 points, he’s in a close race with Democrat challenger Rep. Mary Peltola for reelection. RealClearPolitics’ polling average says Peltola currently holds a 1.8 percentage point lead.
Thus, Republicans are not taking the state for granted, dispatching Vance for his first-ever trip to Alaska.
“At this point in this cycle, you need to make sure that you’re sure about every race,” said Matt Gorman, chief communications officer at Target Victory. “Having the vice president go to Alaska is not a small lift, but it’s a necessary one.”
Trump also gave Sullivan a boost on Wednesday, inviting him into the Oval Office for an announcement on a $54 billion investment in a project to export natural gas from Alaska.
Alaska is one of the few states that uses ranked-choice voting, which could further complicate the election. The system allows voters to rank their top four preferred candidates.
If no candidate gets 50% of the vote in the first round of counting, one candidate is eliminated, and counting continues with the voter’s second or third option.
Vance told reporters the race is competitive due to the “reality of the politics of the state.”
“They obviously have the kind of weird ranked choice voting system that I don’t fully understand, but you know, I think that whether this was going to be a blue wave or a red wave year, you’re going to have a competitive Senate race in Alaska,” he said. “That’s been true historically, and I suspect it’s going to be true this year too.”
It wasn’t long ago that a Democrat won the Alaska Senate seat, Gorman said. Democrat Mark Begich won Alaska’s Class 2 Senate seat in 2008.
“The polls are close, and we have to get our base out,” he said. “Alaska, it leans red, but it certainly has the ability to go for Democrats. So it’s really important that they shore it up. And investing now is easier than investing later.”
Republican strategist and pundit Scott Jennings said Vance can highlight that the “the Trump Administration has been far better for Alaska than Biden’s.”
“Why go back to Democrats who disadvantaged Alaska at every turn? Vance can deliver this message,” he told the Daily Signal.
Democrats should not underestimate Vance’s ability as a communicator, Gorman said. The strategist expects Vance to talk about the administration’s wins for Alaskans and Peltola’s far-left voting record as a member of Congress.
For instance, Peltola voted against a bill to keep males out of female sports, and she voted against a bill allowing parents to access the curriculum at their children’s school.
“People underestimate Vance as a politician, but especially as a communicator. Just ask Tim Walz about his skills,” Gorman said. “Vance can be really good on the stump and can forcefully deliver a message, and especially a contrast.”