Commentary, Politics

Texas Senate Race: Paxton vs. Talarico and the Fight for a Deep-Red Seat

Posted on by Bill McCarthy

The 2026 Texas Senate race is the most competitive statewide contest the state has seen in years. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Trump-endorsed winner of a bruising primary runoff against incumbent John Cornyn, faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico of Austin. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. The state’s fundamentals still favor Republicans, but recent polling shows a dead heat or narrow Democratic leads, driven by Paxton’s long list of legal and ethical problems and Talarico’s appeal to independents and Hispanic voters.

The Candidates and How They Got Here

Paxton crushed Cornyn in the May 2026 runoff after finishing a close second in the March primary. He ran as the pure MAGA alternative, hammering Cornyn on the border, guns, and loyalty to Trump. Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher training for the ministry, defeated progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. He presents as a pragmatic progressive focused on affordability, education, and working families rather than pure identity politics.

Paxton brings the full weight of the Trump coalition and rural Texas. Talarico brings massive fundraising (tens of millions more than Paxton), a clean personal image, and strength with younger voters, Hispanics, and independents.

The Numbers and Recent Polling

Polling has been remarkably tight since the runoff.

  • A late July Texas Public Opinion Research survey had Talarico ahead 45-40.
  • A Fox News poll released July 30 showed Talarico 51-48.
  • The June New York Times/Siena poll was a dead even 47-47.
  • University of Texas and other surveys earlier in the summer showed Paxton up by 1-2 points or ties.

Averages hover near even or give Paxton a slight edge in some aggregates, while others now tilt toward Talarico. Prediction markets still favor Paxton, reflecting Texas’s Republican lean. Talarico is winning independents by wide margins in most surveys and performing surprisingly well with non-college voters. Paxton dominates among white evangelicals, rural voters, and strong Republicans. Hispanic support has been a weak spot for Paxton relative to Trump’s 2024 performance in the state.

Forecasters rate the race Lean Republican to Toss-up. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat here was Lloyd Bentsen. Structural advantages still matter.

The Core Issues

Affordability and cost of living rank as the top concern for voters. Talarico hammers Paxton on everyday expenses and positions himself as the candidate who understands working Texans. Paxton runs on border security, crime, energy dominance, and full alignment with Trump’s agenda. Immigration remains a central Republican strength in Texas; Talarico’s more progressive posture on the issue is a vulnerability in a state that has lived the border crisis for years.

Paxton’s personal baggage is the biggest variable. His 2023 impeachment by the Texas House (he was later acquitted by the Senate), securities fraud indictment, and other controversies give Democrats a ready-made attack line. Republicans counter that the legal problems are political persecution and that Paxton has delivered on conservative priorities as attorney general. Talarico’s relative youth and limited statewide experience invite charges that he is too liberal for Texas.

Abortion has faded as a central issue. Both campaigns prefer to talk about the economy and the border.

Who Wins in November

Texas remains a Republican state. Trump carried it by double digits in 2024. The Republican base is large, motivated, and reliable in midterms. Paxton’s nomination satisfied the party’s most energetic voters. Those structural facts make him the slight favorite.

But the race is no longer a formality. Paxton’s scandals are real and durable. Talarico’s strength with independents and his fundraising advantage keep the contest competitive. If Talarico can hold or expand his current independent and Hispanic margins while Paxton fails to consolidate soft Republicans, Democrats have a genuine path. If Texas reverts to form and the Republican coalition turns out at normal levels, Paxton wins.

Right now the data says this is the closest Texas Senate race in a generation. The state’s underlying partisan lean still points to Paxton as the more likely winner, but the margin for error is thinner than anyone expected when the cycle began.

Help American Liberty PAC in our mission to elect conservatives and save our nation. Support – American Liberty PAC