The Democrats swept last week’s midterms and took the Senate. Chuck Schumer, the New York senator who has run the party’s caucus since 2017, expected to become majority leader without a contest. On November 12, Maryland’s Chris Van Hollen announced he would challenge him. He said voters had demanded change and that the caucus needed new leadership to deliver it.
A Conventional Career That Turned Left
Van Hollen is 67. He was born in Karachi, Pakistan, to an American diplomat father and a mother who worked in intelligence. He spent much of his childhood overseas, returned for high school in Massachusetts, and earned degrees from Swarthmore, Harvard, and Georgetown. He staffed a liberal Republican senator from Maryland, then won seats in the state legislature. In 2002 he beat a popular moderate Republican for a House seat representing the Washington suburbs. He later chaired the House Democratic campaign committee and, after winning a Senate seat in 2016, chaired the Senate Democratic campaign committee for one term. Until recently he looked like a reliable establishment operator.
The Record That Made Him the Progressive Choice
In the last few years Van Hollen moved hard to the left on foreign policy and immigration. He has been one of the most persistent Democratic critics of Israel. He called the withholding of food from Gaza a “textbook war crime” and said those responsible were war criminals. He has accused the Netanyahu government of ethnic cleansing in Gaza and slow-motion ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. He has pushed to restrict American weapons transfers and has said the United States itself has been complicit in the suffering. Those positions made him a favorite of the party’s progressive wing.
Last year he flew to El Salvador to meet Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland man the administration had deported despite a court order that barred his return there. Salvadoran officials released a photo of the two men at a hotel table with drinks that looked like margaritas. Van Hollen said the glasses were props placed by the officials and that neither man drank from them. The episode showed he was willing to insert himself into fights most of his colleagues avoided.
He also defended a Maine Senate candidate who had a chest tattoo resembling a Nazi SS symbol and a record of inflammatory online posts. Van Hollen said people deserve second chances and pointed to the candidate’s military service and claims of PTSD. The candidate later left the race.
The Leadership Math
Van Hollen says he has spoken to most Democratic senators and has more than 10 commitments. Public supporters include Bernie Sanders and several incoming members, among them Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed. Schumer says he already has the votes. Public endorsements lean toward the incumbent, including from independents who caucus with the Democrats and from several returning senators. The secret-ballot election is set for early December. With a caucus of roughly 55 seats (and possibly 56 if remaining races go their way), a majority requires about 28 votes.
What the Polls Show About Schumer
Schumer’s standing with voters is weak. One recent survey found only 10 percent of voters want him as majority leader, while 57 percent prefer someone else. Among Democrats the share wanting a change is higher still. Other polls show his unfavorable ratings well above his favorable ones with the broader public. Inside the caucus the picture is different. Many members still give him credit for the midterm gains, and the power of incumbency is real when the vote is secret.
Can He Win?
Van Hollen calls himself the underdog, and the early numbers support that view. Progressive energy helped elect some of the new members, yet most of the caucus is not ready to hand the gavel to a senator whose record on Israel and certain immigration cases sits at the far edge of the party. A secret ballot can always produce surprises, but the public endorsements and the quiet assessments from senators point to Schumer holding the stronger hand.
Either outcome leaves the country with a Senate Democratic leader who will press harder against American interests abroad and against enforcement at the border. Van Hollen would simply do it with fewer restraints. The midterms gave Democrats the numbers. The fight over who leads them shows how far some in the party want to take those numbers.
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