More Americans are identifying as independents than at any other time in recent history, and at the same time independents are highly skeptical of the Democratic Party, calling into question the narrative that Democrats will recoup significant power in the midterm elections in 2026.
Americans identifying as independent is at a record high. According to Gallup, 43 percent of voters refuse to identify with either major party and claim political independence, while 28 percent say they are Democrats and 28 percent say they are Republicans. Of course, the vast majority of political independents who end up voting gravitate toward one of the two major parties during elections.
Historically, the voting preference of independents tends to correlate with large cultural shifts that upturn existing power structures, and in a majority of modern midterm election cycles the party that has won the independent vote gains power.
In the 2006 midterm elections, with George W. Bush in the White House, independents supported Congressional Democrats by a sweeping 18 points, 59 percent to 41 percent. This alignment of independents toward Democrats coincided with the party winning 30 House seats, and marked a powerful political alignment toward the left, which included the independent vote throwing itself behind Barack Obama in 2008.
Compare that to the way independents voted two years into Obama’s first term in the 2010 midterms. Independents had become deeply disillusioned with Democrats, and flipped to support Republicans by 18 points, 59 percent to 41 percent. Republicans won 63 House seats in 2010, buoyed by a vast advantage in the independent vote.
Independents stuck with Republicans in 2014, near the tail-end of Obama’s second term, and supported Congressional Republicans by twelve points, 56 percent to 44 percent. The GOP gained thirteen seats in that election.
In the 2018 midterms with Trump in the White House, independents shifted again, but this time their vote aligned with gains for Democrats. Independents supported Democrats by 12 points, 54 percent to 42 percent, and this coincided with Democrats winning 40 House seats.
In 2022, the independent vote was nearly split, with independents narrowly supporting Democrats by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent. This nearly split vote correlated with a split balance of power, with Republicans narrowly winning control of the House while Democrats narrowly expanded their majority in the Senate.
The correlations are not perfectly proportional, but independent voters’ preferences tend to predict the party that wins power in the midterm election cycle. Looking ahead to 2026, Democrats could struggle significantly to regain the power they hope to, particularly considering approval ratings for Democrats are far worse than for Republicans among independents.
A detailed report from Democratic-leaning firm Navigator Research that circulated among Democrats this spring points to a deeply worrying midterm election cycle for Democrats. The survey polled voters across 62 competitive House districts and found faith in Congressional Democrats was down across the board, but particularly with independents and undecided or persuadable voters.
The Navigator survey found that Congressional Democrats are underwater by over twice as many points as Congressional Republicans with independent voters in battleground House districts.
House Republicans have an approval rating that is underwater by 13 points with independents, 55 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile, House Democrats are underwater by a striking 28 points among independents, 62 percent to 34 percent.
The poll also sectioned out persuadable voters – those who are on the fence about their support – and found that Republicans hold a 16 percentage point advantage over Democrats among persuadable voters.
While Republicans are underwater by eighteen points among persuadable voters, 55 percent to 37 percent, Democrats are underwater by 34 points, 61 percent to 27 percent.
Democrats are significantly underperforming with independent and swing voters compared to other historic election cycles where the out-of-power party won sweeping Congressional victories. Combine that with the fact that the independent vote often predicts electoral victories, and the outlook for Democrats in 2026 may not be nearly as optimistic as mainstream analysts project.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Reproduced with permission. Original here: Independent Voters Tend To Predict Sweeping Midterm Election Victories And That Is Bad News For Democrats In 2026
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