For years, organizations like Americans for Limited Government Foundation have been warning the political class about the working-class minority departure from the Democratic Party, and now that shift can no longer be ignored.
The beltway elite have largely written off incremental shifts among minorities to the right as inconsequential, but Joe Biden’s tumbling polling numbers among minorities have the left waking up to a huge electoral problem in recent weeks.
Polling from the New York Times has consistently shown Biden underperforming with minorities over the past year, and Biden has lost nearly 20 percentage points of support among non-white voters compared to 2020. According to the Times, Biden leads Trump by a mere 25 percentage points in national polls, or 53% to 28%. These numbers mark a significant decline in compared to the proportion of the non-white vote Biden won in 2020, which was 70%. In other words, Biden went from winning 70% of non-white voters three years ago to winning barely over half in current polling.
These are not numbers that can be ignored, and Democrats are scrambling to undo the damage that three years under the Biden Administration has done to their reputation not only with minorities, but also with women, young people, and independents.
Source: New York Times
Democrats have been losing support with non-white voters in nearly every election since 2012, when Obama won his second term. Since then, the Democratic Paty’s unhinged social agenda and demolition of the working class have isolated them from minorities, and Biden’s economic agenda has further solidified that wedge.
According to the Times analysis, Democrats have lost approximately 8 points with Blacks since 2012, and 11 points with Hispanics. Non-whites as a collective which could include Native American, Asian, and Pacific Islanders, have shown the steepest decline in support for Democrats, with support falling approximately 14 points between 2012 and 2022.
Biden’s inability to quell inflation, the affordable housing crisis, rising crime, and a porous border are all issues contributing to his falling approval rating, and the latest polls show his approval rating is under 50 percent among minorities as a whole.
Biden’s standing in the polls against Trump is shrinking among all major racial groups according to the Times when compared to his lead over Trump in 2020. For instance, Biden leads Trump among Blacks 71% to 11%, and his lead among Hispanics has shrunk to 47% to 35%. He is still in the lead, but Biden won Blacks 87% to 12% in 2020, and he won Hispanics 65% to 32% then. Biden has therefore lost around 16 points with Blacks in just three years, and 18 points with Hispanics over the same period.
Biden’s lead among other ethnic groups (which would include Asians and Native Americans) is just 40% to 39%, but he won this group 55% to 41% in 2020. This translates into a 15-point erosion in support for Biden over the past three years.
There is also a persistent education gap, with non-whites without a college degree beginning to vote like whites without a college degree – which means they vote for Republicans at much higher rates. Biden’s support is falling fastest with working-class minorities who do not have a college education. Biden leads Trump among college-educated minorities 61% to 23%, but he leads among non-college educated minorities just 49% to 31%.
The Times data also shows a small move toward Trump among those polled, but keep in mind previous research has shown shy Trump voters are hesitant to share their vote choice with mainstream pollsters, so the number could easily be higher.
The Democratic Party’s disastrous economic policies and hollowing out of the middle-class are causing a ripple effect that cannot be undone. While minorities have historically favored the Democratic Party for its veneer of populism, this is no longer the case. A colossal chasm has opened up, dividing the globalist elites from the working-class, and that division transcends race. Minorities departing the left does not automatically make them conservatives, but it represents an opportunity for conservatives to make their case for America First priorities.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.