Don’t look now, but believe it or not, just three months into office, we have already experienced 6 percent of President Donald Trump’s second term. By the end of the year, it will have been 25 percent and in 2026, the country will be once again swept up on the political cycle of periodic elections with the Congressional midterms looming.
Right now, the generic Congressional ballot shows Democrats ahead in the national average of polls taken for 2026 compiled by RealClearPolling.com, with Democrats leading 45.8 percent to 44.3 percent. All six of the past six polls taken have shown Democrats leading the race.
Even at this early stage — Republicans are still working on their tax cut and border security budget bill for crying out loud — it is in fact not too early to begin polling for the midterms, and sure enough pollsters are already taking up the task. That is because the usual, reliable measure for who’s ahead is the generic Congressional ballot, simply asking voters which party they intend to support in the next round of elections.
How reliable? The average of generic Congressional ballot polls all predicted the winner of the 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections.
In 2002, the Real Clear Politics average of the last batch of polls taken had Republicans winning the popular vote 47.7 percent to 46 percent, and sure enough Republicans won the popular vote for the House of Representatives, except that it was by an even greater margin than forecast, 49.6 percent to 45 percent.
In 2006, the average of polls had Democrats leading the generic Congressional ballot 52.1 percent to 40.6 percent, although that overstated the outcome a bit, with Democrats winning the House popular vote 52 percent to 44 percent.
In 2010, the average of polls had Republicans leading 50.7 percent to 41.3 percent, also overstated a bit, with the final outcome being 51.6 percent to 44.8 percent.
In 2014, the average of polls had Republicans ahead, 45.6 percent to 43.2 percent, and Republicans won with 51.4 percent to 45.7 percent.
In 2018, the average of polls had Democrats ahead, 49.7 percent to 42.4 percent, and Democrats won with 53.3 percent to 44.9 percent.
And in 2022, the average of polls had Republicans ahead 48 percent to 45.5 percent, and Republicans won 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent.
So, the polls are fairly reliable during midterm elections, and can even predict the rare, unusual event where the White House incumbent party is going to win the midterm elections.
In midterm elections dating back to 1906 through 2022, the party that occupied the White House lost seats in the House 27 out of 30 times, or 90 percent of the time, and in years with losses those averaged 34 seats. It was only overcome in 1934, 1998 and 2002, with the Great Depression, Monica Lewinsky and the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks acting as exigent events. Another edge case is 1962, wherein Democrats only lost three seats, and came within weeks of the Cuban Missile Crisis being resolved.
The general rule favoring the opposition in midterms is all James Madison’s constitutional scheme of periodic elections, explicitly designed to frustrate the ability of majorities to get things done. But midterms are generally a turnout affair, where the opposition party, being out of power, has more a motivation to vote, and so they tend to do relatively better, picking up seats, but not always majorities.
To do that, the popular vote itself a reliable gauge of who won the majority. In 28 out of 30 midterm elections, or 93 percent of cases, the party that won the national popular vote for the House also won the majority for the House of Representatives, in 1906, 1910, 1918, 1922, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1946, 1950, 1954, 1958, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022.
The only exceptions were 1914, when Republicans won the popular vote but not a House majority, and 1942, when the same thing happened, both owing to the 100+ seat majorities Democrats had acquired in 1912 and 1940, respectively, giving them the overwhelming odds Democrats would retain House majorities no matter how poorly they did in the election.
So, to win the House, a party should endeavor to win the national popular vote. And to see who is winning the national popular vote, a good recent, reliable gauge has been the generic Congressional ballot.
And to break the midterm jinx, just a 1 in 10 chance for the White House incumbents, currently President Donald Trump and Republicans, appears in the rare instance to take an exigent event or failure from the preceding party intervening and favoring the White House incumbent party in Congress in the off-year election. The real key comes down to motivation by voters, and so turnout and enthusiasm are the key considerations.
Recently, even with record midterm turnout for Republicans in 2022, winning 54.2 million votes, amid public outrage over high inflation, the GOP almost lost that year — only picking up nine seats. Democrats were outraged by Roe v. Wade, which had barred states from curtailing abortions, being overturned by the Supreme Court. Nearly beating the midterm jinx, Democrats were able to motivate lower propensity voters in the off-year election that usually favors the opposition party.
As it is, we’re still in a garden variety cycle where Democrats, being out of the White House, have a 90 percent chance of picking up seats. For President Trump and Republicans, it will likely, barring an exigent event — something on the order of the Great Depression, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Monica Lewinsky or 9/11 — feel a lot like pushing on a string. As usual, stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Reproduced with permission. Original here: Democrats Lead Generic Congressional Ballot, Just Like They Did In 2018 And 2006 With Republican In The White House
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