Politics

The Texas Senate Race Has Turned Into a Coin Flip With the Clock Running Out

Posted on by Bill McCarthy

With early voting already underway and Election Day one week off, the contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico sits inside the margin of error in most surveys. Averages of recent polls put Talarico ahead by roughly two points. Individual polls show everything from a five-point Talarico lead to an outright tie. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than three decades. The numbers now say that streak is in real doubt.

What the Polls Actually Show

An Emerson College survey of one thousand likely voters, released October 22, found Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 46 percent. When leaners were included the gap stayed at one point. A Fox News poll of nearly fourteen hundred likely voters released the same week showed them deadlocked at 49 percent each. A Cook Political Report battleground poll had Talarico up 49 to 44. University of Houston and Marist surveys from mid-October put the Democrat ahead by two or three points. Across more than sixty public polls the average sits near Talarico 49, Paxton 47. Most of the individual results fall inside their stated margins of error. The race has not moved more than a point or two in either direction for the last month.

Where the Money Is Going

Talarico’s campaign has raised roughly one hundred fifty million dollars over the cycle, the large majority of it in small contributions under one hundred dollars. Paxton’s campaign committees have raised about thirty-nine million dollars in total. That gap is real. Outside groups have more than closed it. Super PACs aligned with Paxton have spent well over two hundred million dollars, including large transfers that originated with a single Texas-based donor who sent one hundred fifty-eight million dollars into the main Republican Senate vehicle. Combined advertising in the race has already passed five hundred million dollars. The candidate who raises less is still on television every night because the outside money has kept the airwaves saturated.

What the Final Week Will Decide

Texas remains a Republican state in statewide races. Paxton won his primary runoff by nearly twenty-eight points. The same electorate that has kept the governor’s mansion and both Senate seats in Republican hands for a generation is the one that must turn out. Polls that show Talarico leading among independents and holding a slice of 2024 Republican voters are the reason the race is close. Those same surveys show Paxton consolidating the Republican base once early voting numbers become clear. If the usual Texas turnout pattern holds—higher rural and older-voter participation relative to urban and younger voters—the two-point average lead disappears. If the higher-propensity Democratic groups that have been showing up in early voting continue through Election Day, the lead holds. Neither candidate has a clear structural advantage in the final stretch. The outside money is already spent. The remaining variable is who actually shows up.

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