“Sounds likely.”
That was President Donald Trump’s response to a question from a reporter at his first White House press conference on Jan. 21 since returning to office about if there would be additional sanctions if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not negotiate for a ceasefire with Ukraine, “You called for a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Vladimir Putin doesn’t come to the table to negotiate with you, will you put additional sanctions on Russia?”
President Trump’s retention of leverage, in this case with more threatened sanctions against Russia, is not very surprising given his desire to keep his campaign promise to fight for a ceasefire in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine that has seen hundreds of thousands of deaths and threatens a wider regional conflict or even world war if it is not resolved.
When asked if Trump would keep sending weapons to Ukraine, Trump kept his options open, stating, “we’ll look into that. We’re talking to Zelensky. We’re going to be talking with President Putin very soon. And we’ll see how it all happens. We’re going to look at it very soon.”
Similarly, here Trump is retaining the right to withhold U.S. weapons from Ukraine in order to create further incentives for both sides to come to the table. This is also not very surprising.
This is vintage Trump and his art of the deal, quite similar to his approach with tariffs with other countries, either in levying them or threatening to levy them in order to draw trade partners to the table to negotiate a better deal.
From the U.S. perspective, both Russia and Ukraine want things the U.S. can provide, whether fewer sanctions or more weapons and protection, respectively. All of those are chips to use in the negotiation and so naturally Trump won’t give either of them away for free.
Similarly, both parties have expressed an interest in peace talks but differ drastically in goals — Ukraine wants to join NATO to deter Russian aggression, and Russia’s invasion was designed to make that impossible without triggering World War III — so Trump is kicking off his own desire to start the talking by stating his own intentions to initiate the talks directly, and importantly, increasing the incentives for the parties to take his call.
The news comes as Trump has tasked retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg with getting a deal done within 100 days, according to a Jan. 22 report by the Wall Street Journal.
In the 2024 campaign, ending the ongoing war was a key issue for Trump, which he has warned could result in a nuclear war. That’s also an incentive for both parties not to seek to drag the U.S. into active involvement in the theater, for example, by Russia expanding the war to NATO countries or on the other side by putting U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine.
The question is whether all that is enough to create a path for de-escalation.
For the parties, at the press conference, Trump reminded both Russia and Ukraine that the costs of the war are devastating, stating, “Russia’s lost about 800,000 soldiers now. Ukraine’s lost about 600,000 or 700,000. I think the numbers are low that they’re giving out. But they’ve lost massive numbers of young soldiers. And that war should stop.”
Trump added, “You know, it’s beautiful farmland, and it’s flat and really beautiful in a different kind of way, but they don’t have any protection. The only thing that stops a bullet is a body, and those bodies are stopping a lot of bullets, and they’re getting, they’re being decimated. Both sides.”
It might not be much of an incentive—both sides appear determined to fight—but the costs of war are still very high, and a part of any negotiation will be weighing those costs versus the benefits of alternatives including a ceasefire or broader peace agreement. Undoubtedly, that would mean both parties would have to make concessions.
At his inaugural address on Jan. 20, Trump said he wants to be a peacemaker, stating, “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end — and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be: a peacemaker and a unifier.”
It’s quite an undertaking, but to increase his odds for success, Trump is putting everything on the table to get both parties to come to the table. The real question might be whether they really want to talk.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Reproduced with permission. Original here: Trump Threatens Russia With More Sanctions If No Ceasefire Negotiation With Ukraine
Help American Liberty PAC in our mission to elect conservatives and save our nation. Support – American Liberty PAC